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Value In NGB Bonds, Weak Norwegian Retail Sales And Danish Currency Rese

Published 01/30/2017, 02:22 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM

In Sweden , the week ahead has little of interest. It is only on Friday (at 09.30 CET) that we receive data on December industrial orders and production. These data normally attract little market attention, but it is one of the last important pieces of our Q4 16 GDP calculations. Should the data continue on the strong post-Trump trend, we will probably need to lift our forecast from a modest 0.3% q/q (seasonally and working day adjusted).

Norges Bank will tap the bond markets on Wednesday. Norges Bank has announced that it will open a new 10Y in February. Hence, it could either be on Wednesday or in two weeks' time. The announcement is due Monday at 12.00 CET.

We think the outlook for NGBs has improved over the past couple of weeks, especially relative to Bunds or semi-core countries. Read more in the Norway section.

Plenty of numbers for the Norwegian market to digest. Based on reports from shopping centres, we expect retail sales to fall no less than 1.5% m/m in December. Although this will still result in growth in private consumption of around 0.5% q/q in Q4, it may cast doubt on just how strong the upturn in the Norwegian economy really is. The week also brings the NAV and LFS unemployment measures, manufacturing confidence and PMI data for January.

In Denmark , the Nationalbank publishes currency reserves numbers for January on Thursday. Danmarks Nationalbank carried out a minor FX intervention in December, but EUR/DKK has been fairly stable in January and marginally higher so probably no intervention this month.

The Danish Debt Management Office sold the new 10Y DGB last week. We think it offers some value vs swaps or semi-core countries given it was sold with a small discount in the market.

To read the entire report Please click on the pdf File Below

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