Get 40% Off
⚠ Earnings Alert! Which stocks are poised to surge?
See the stocks on our ProPicks radar. These strategies gained 19.7% year-to-date.
Unlock full list

USD/JPY Testing 61.8% Bearish Retracement Level

Published 06/20/2018, 02:43 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:32 AM


After the strong extended bearish rally, the USD/JPY pair has found some decent support at 98.87. From that level, the pair started its bullish rally and found some strong resistance at 118.52. From that level, the pair against started its bearish rally but it was contained by the critical support level at 104.54. From that level, the buyers again take control of this market and started its final bullish correction. Currently, the price is testing the 61.8% bearish retracement level drawn from the high of 5th November 2017 to the low of first April 2018.

USD/JPY daily chart analysis
usdjpy
Figure: USDJPY testing 61.8% bearish retracement level

From the above figure, you can clearly see the sellers are slowly losing control of this market but still they need to clear out the critical resistance level at 110.83 to establish medium-term bottom near the critical support level at 104.54. According to the leading analyst of Rakuten broker, a daily closing of the price above the 61.8% bearish retracement level will turn the initial bias of this pair bullish.


If the current resistance level manages to refuel the bears, the pair is most likely to drop towards the next support level at 104.54. From that level, we might see some decent bullish bounce and any bullish price action confirmation signal will be an excellent opportunity to execute long orders. A daily closing of the price below the low of 18th March 2018 will turn the initial bias of this pair strongly bearish. This will eventually lead this pair towards the next major support level at 98.94. This level is going to extremely supportive for the dollar bulls and sellers will have a tough time to clear out this resistance level. From that level, the optimistic buyers will be looking to execute long orders but buying the pair at such lower price will be an immature act in the absence of definite bullish reversal sign.

On the upside, we need to break above the 61.8% retracement level to establish strong bullish momentum in this pair. A clear break of the critical resistance level at 110.90 will eventually lead this pair towards the next critical resistance level at 111.42. This level is going to provide an extreme level of selling pressure to this pair and most of the leading price action traders will be looking for bearish price action confirmation signal to execute short orders. A strong retreat from that level will again lead this pair towards the broken 61.8% retracement level. On the contrary, a clear break of that resistance level will eventually lead this pair towards the major resistance level at 114.64. Clearing out this critical resistance level will be extremely hard since we have plenty of resistance candle just above this level. However, a clear break of this level will confirm the end of a medium-term bearish trend.


Fundamentally the recent performance of the U.S economy is doing relatively well and most of the leading investors are expecting a strong surge in the U.S dollar index. In the last trading week, the FED has hiked their interest rate on the basis of 25 points and FED Chairperson Jerome Powel has also stated they will go for another rate hike if their economy manages to overcome the current recession problem. However, some of the leading economists are considering such frequent rate hike as an aggressive act to stabilize their economy. But such drastic action from the FED officials might prolong the recession problem due to the rise of the inflation rate. Moreover, the average hourly income of the U.S economy is facing exponential growth which strongly suggests, green bucks are gaining back its former strength. Considering the technical and fundamental parameters, the USD/JPY bulls might clear out the current resistance level and establish an extended bullish rally.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.