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USD/JPY Rebounds, US GDP, Tokyo Core CPI Next

By MarketPulse (Kenny Fisher)CurrenciesSep 28, 2023 08:25AM ET

www.investing.com/analysis/usdjpy-rebounds-us-gdp-tokyo-core-cpi-next-200642237

By MarketPulse (Kenny Fisher) | Sep 28, 2023 08:25AM ET

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USD/JPY

+0.36%

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Tokyo Core CPI expected to drop from 2.8% to 2.6%
Japanese yen steadies after slide

The Japanese yen has stemmed a 3-day slide, in which it declined around 1.5% against the US dollar. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 149.31, down 0.23%. In the US, the third estimate of GDP for the second quarter is expected to be revised lower to 2.1%.

Tokyo Core CPI Expected to Decelerate

Japan will release the Tokyo Core CPI on Friday. The core rate, a key inflation gauge, is expected to ease to 2.6% y/y in August, down from 2.8% y/y in September. Core inflation has remained above the Bank of Japan’s 2% inflation target for 15 consecutive months, which seems to indicate broad inflationary pressure. Still, Governor Ueda has said he will not phase out massive monetary stimulus, arguing that wages need to rise in order to ensure that inflation remains sustainable at around 2%. Japan’s weak economy is making it easier for the BoJ to maintain its ultra-easy policy, and Friday’s inflation release won’t change the BoJ’s stance.

The Japanese yen has paid the price for the BoJ’s insistence on maintaining an ultra-loose policy and has had only one winning week against the dollar since July. The US/Japan rate differential continues to rise as Japanese yields stay put while US Treasury yields continue to move higher. USD/JPY is close to the 150 line and could breach it shortly. This will put pressure on Tokyo to intervene in the currency markets to prop up the ailing Japanese currency.

The US dollar is having an off day against the major currencies on Thursday, but the greenback has looked sharp against the majors lately. The markets are concerned that interest rates could remain higher for longer, as the US economy has been showing signs of resilience. Oil prices have hit $93 and are contributing to higher inflation – In August, US CPI rose from 3.3% to .3.7%. The futures markets have priced in a rate hike before the end of the year at 36.5%, which means the markets are uncertain if interest rates have peaked.

USD/JPY Technical

There is resistance at 149.19 and 149.93
USD/JPY tested support at 148.79 earlier. Below, there is support at 148.05

Original Post

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US 30	36,161.6	-83.9	-0.23%
US 500	4,561.7	-32.9	-0.72%
Dow Jones	36,161.16	-84.34	-0.23%
S&P 500	4,561.70	-32.93	-0.72%
Nasdaq	14,151.89	-153.14	-1.07%
S&P 500 VIX	13.22	+0.59	+4.67%
Dollar Index	103.684	+0.484	+0.47%

Crude Oil WTI	73.06	-1.01	-1.36%
Brent Oil	78.05	-0.83	-1.05%
Natural Gas	2.688	-0.126	-4.48%
Gold	2,044.35	-45.35	-2.17%
Silver	24.895	-0.962	-3.72%
Copper	3.8268	-0.1047	-2.66%
US Soybeans	1,307.25	-16.75	-1.27%

U.S. 10Y	4.287	+0.063	+1.50%
U.S. 30Y	4.445	+0.028	+0.64%
U.S. 5Y	4.240	+0.086	+2.06%
U.S. 3M	5.395	+0.007	+0.13%
US 10Y T-Note	110.19	-0.48	-0.44%
Euro Bund	133.78	+0.18	+0.13%
10-2 Yield Spread	-34.38	+2.26	+-6.17%

Apple	188.91	-2.34	-1.22%
Alphabet A	128.53	-3.33	-2.52%
Tesla	237.19	-1.64	-0.69%
Amazon.com	144.60	-2.43	-1.66%
Netflix	454.20	-11.54	-2.48%
Meta Platforms	318.18	-6.64	-2.04%
Bank of America	30.80	-0.17	-0.53%

	Interest Rates	Next Meeting
FED	5.50%	Dec 13, 2023
ECB	4.50%	Dec 14, 2023
BOE	5.25%	Dec 14, 2023
SNB	1.75%	Dec 14, 2023
RBA	4.35%	Dec 05, 2023
BOC	5.00%	Dec 06, 2023
RBNZ	5.50%	Feb 28, 2024
BOJ	-0.10%	Dec 19, 2023
CBR	15.00%	Dec 15, 2023
RBI	6.50%	Dec 08, 2023
PBOC	3.45%
BCB	12.25%	Dec 13, 2023

USD/JPY Rebounds, US GDP, Tokyo Core CPI Next

Tokyo Core CPI Expected to Decelerate

USD/JPY Technical

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