After strong gains last week, the Japanese yen has extended its gains Monday. USD/JPY is trading at 138.23 in the European session, down 0.67%.
Yen Jumps on China Unrest
China has applied its COVID-zero policy with a heavy hand, but COVID cases continue to rise nonetheless. The mass lockdowns have triggered widespread protests, which some injuries reported. The unrest is likely to exacerbate supply-chain disruptions and dampen domestic demand, which has hurt risk appetite. This has resulted in flows to safe-haven assets, such as the Japanese yen. USD/JPY dropped as much as 1% earlier today, but the dollar has managed to recover some of these losses.
The yen also received a boost after Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the tightening labour market will push wages higher. Kuroda has long insisted that rising inflation has driven by import costs and the weak yen, and is transient. Higher wages would indicate that inflation is sustained, which could result in the BoJ making some changes in its ultra-loose policy.
After a short trading week in the U.S. due to the Thanksgiving holiday, the markets will have plenty of U.S. events to digest this week. CB Consumer Confidence will be released on Tuesday, with the November report expected to dip to 100.0, down from 102.5. The key release of the week is nonfarm payrolls on Friday, which could have a major impact on the Fed’s decision to raise rates by 50 or 75 basis points at the Dec.14 meeting. Currently, the likelihood of a 50-bp hike is about 75%, versus 25% for a larger 75-bp increase. Investors are viewing a 50-point move as a dovish pivot, which has been putting pressure on the U.S. dollar. Still, even a 50-bp hike would set a record for yearly rate hikes of 4.25%.
USD/JPY Technical
- There is resistance at 139.82 and 141.58
- There is support at 137.39 and 135.63
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