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USD Slides On Trump's Speech

Published 01/12/2017, 11:26 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:32 AM


Overview

The first press conference of the President-Elect Donald Trump was held yesterday and it worked against the US dollar and the US Markets. Donald Trump repeated the same words he said during his pre-election campaign, he attended the press conference with no specific plan in place regarding the economic policies that he is going to follow, disappointing the greenback’s bulls and boosting the dollar to drop by 2% against most of its major counterparties. The big losers of Trump’s speech in the forex market were the Mexican Peso and the Turkish Lira which reached new low levels during the press conference. Specifically, the President-Elect spent the biggest part of the press conference explaining his plans about the management of his companies and the news around Russia hacking the Election votes, which are both of little interest to the investors. He repeated his plans about building a wall between America and Mexico, about increasing the domestic production of the country and the border taxes and decreasing the medical drugs cost.

Despite the correction of the US dollar, we do not consider a reversal yet until there is clear evidence of it. Our long term view remains bullish since Donald Trump did not change his promised plans, he just did not reveal details. USD/JPY experienced the widest range from its lowest to its highest daily price yesterday, but it managed to close the day quite unchanged as it fell by -0.3% in total. The pairs that closed the day significantly higher against the US dollar were the New Zealand Dollar and the Australian Dollar which rose by 1%. All of the majors keep on rising today against the greenback at the time of writing.
USD Change

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The British pound also faced a hard day yesterday as it fell against all of its major counterparties except the US dollar, after the Governor Mark Carney’s speech. Carney said that the main risk for the UK is not Brexit anymore but rather a weak real estate market, Sterling depreciation, large consumer credit and accounts deficit.


There are few significant economic events left for the rest of the week. The Chairwoman Janet Yellen will speak in Washington DC where she will be most likely addressing teachers and avoid referring to the fiscal policy. During the Asian session we are looking for Chinese December’s trade balance which is expected around 2 Billion more than November’s. From the US, we are looking for the release of the Core Retail Sales, the Producers Price Index and the Retail Sales at 13:30 GMT. Retail sales are expected to be higher than the previous month and PPI slightly lower by 10 basis points.

Technical View

EUR/USD
The world’s most traded currency reached a new session high today at 1.068. MACD and RSI are both slopping upwards towards their bullish territories on the hourly timeframe while ADX is on overextended positive levels. Moreover, the pair is trading above the triple SMAs and within Bollinger’s® upper and middle band. We would expect the pair is rise further in the near term timeframe. The valid resistance levels are the psychological level of 1.07 and 1.076 while the support levels are near 1.062 and 1.057.

EUR/USD Hourly Chart

USD/JPY
The Gopher found resistance around the psychological level of 117 and it is now moving lower towards the critical support of 114. On the 4-hour timeframe, ADX indicates healthy negative directional movement while RSI and MACD are moving within their bearish territories indicating sell signals. Most likely the pair will test again the psychological support of 114 and upon penetration of it the next valid support to be tested is the level of 113.3. On the other side, the major resistances are around the levels of 115 and 115.6.
USD/JPY 4 Hourly Chart

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USD/CAD
The oil traded on new session highs after Trump’s press conference and the USD/CAD broke the daily upside trendline to the downside. If the pair close the day lower than the trendline today, then the penetration is official and it will likely move to lower levels. However, if USD/CAD manages to close above the trendline and the support level of SMA200, then the uptrend is still in place. MACD and RSI are moving downwards on bearish levels while Stochastic is having a trial to penetrate to the upside its oversold level. The critical levels to the downside is 1.30 and upon penetration 1.29. On the upside, the critical resistances are near the intersection point of the downtrend line and the price at 1.3172 and then at 1.33.
USD/CAD Daily Chart

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