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USD Dips (Slightly) On Fed Taper, Could BoE Hike Rates?

By Kathy LienForexNov 03, 2021 04:15PM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/usd-dips-slightly-on-fed-taper-could-boe-hike-rates-200607284
USD Dips (Slightly) On Fed Taper, Could BoE Hike Rates?
By Kathy Lien   |  Nov 03, 2021 04:15PM ET
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The Federal Reserve has made it official. Starting later this month, it will reduce its monthly bond purchases by $15 billion ($10 billion Treasuries, $5 billion mortgage-backed securities). By June 2022, the bond-buying program should come to an end. The Fed explains that pandemic stimulus can start to be unwound as “substantial further progress in the economy has (been) made toward the committee’s goals since last December.” 
 
It left interest rates unchanged, which was expected, and continued to use the word “transitory” to describe inflation. While some investors believed it would drop this language, it did not seem to matter, as once the dust settled, the U.S. dollar ended the day virtually unchanged (slightly lower) from its pre-FOMC levels against other the major currencies. Stocks and bond yields ended higher, which should benefit the Yen crosses.
 
Looking ahead to Friday’s non-farm payrolls report, economists expect a significant recovery in job growth during the month of October. A large part of this has to do with the slowdown in September, when non-farm payrolls rose by only 194,000. That number is expected to more than double this week, with a consensus forecast of 450,000. According to ADP, private sector payroll growth was very strong last month, but even though service-sector activity hit a record high in October, the shortage of workers drove the employment index lower. As one of the most important leading indicators for non-farm payrolls, this suggests that while more jobs are expected in October, the increase may fall short of the market’s lofty forecast. 

Will BoE Hike On Thursday?

 
Meanwhile, as we count down to Friday’s NFP report, our focus shifts to the Bank of England’s monetary policy announcement on Thursday. In many ways, the BoE rate decision should have a greater impact on sterling than the FOMC did on the U.S. dollar because the U.K. central bank is close to raising interest rates. As the second major central bank to reduce asset purchases, the BoE has been leading the pack in unwinding pandemic support, and with inflation surging, a small contingent of investors believe it could hike as quickly as Thursday. The market is pricing in a 60% chance of 15bp hike, which means a full quarter-point move is unlikely. However, the central bank has done a smaller adjustment before, so we can’t rule out that possibility completely.
 
BoE Governor Andrew Bailey and monetary policy committee member Michael Saunders have suggested that an immediate hike may be needed, but other policy-makers want to see further improvements in labor market activity or evidence that inflation is less transitory before making the move. With the RBNZ raising rates, the Bank of Canada announcing the end to quantitative easing and the Fed beginning to reduce asset purchases, we think there is a decent chance for a rate hike by the BoE. It may not be a full quarter point, but it could be a 15bp increase. Immediate tightening should be wildly positive for the greenback, as it is not really anticipated. However, if the BoE forgoes a rate hike in November, then a hike in December becomes very likely. In this scenario, we expect no change to be accompanied by hawkish comments, which could be initially negative but ultimately positive for GBP. Either way, barring an unexpected surprise, we see sterling strength post-BoE, particularly against euro. 
 
The best performing currency today was the New Zealand dollar. Employment growth soared in the third quarter, driving the country's unemployment rate to its lowest level since 2007. The 3.4% is much lower than the 3.9% forecast and matches the record low. Wage growth was also healthy, rising 0.7%. This data justifies the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s recent decision to raise interest rates. The Australian dollar rose in lockstep with NZD, but the Canadian dollar was held back by the 4% drop in oil prices
USD Dips (Slightly) On Fed Taper, Could BoE Hike Rates?
 

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USD Dips (Slightly) On Fed Taper, Could BoE Hike Rates?

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Comments (10)
Theresa Davis
Theresa Davis Nov 11, 2021 12:30PM ET
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is the best
Theresa Davis
Theresa Davis Nov 11, 2021 12:29PM ET
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best
Steffen vdm
Steffen vdm Nov 04, 2021 4:21AM ET
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Meanwhile inflation going up significantly. Hoping that BOE will follow Poland and raise rates. Tough luck for the investors and the markets, but this is the only way the financial damage for 90% of the people can be limited
Jac Meeouff
Jac Meeouff Nov 04, 2021 4:21AM ET
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They need to let thingss crash and restart. That would actually prevent more damage than this lingering consolidationthat teaches peoplw to scalp and secure profits rather than taking long term positions that banks rely on for easy money. All they have done is cost themselves more money and resuced trust
Idahosa Solomon
Idahosa Solomon Nov 04, 2021 3:28AM ET
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Santosh Adhikari
Santosh Adhikari Nov 03, 2021 9:39PM ET
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long yield currencies short Jpy. Chf getting to past intervention levels staying away
Thomas Read
Thomas Read Nov 03, 2021 6:58PM ET
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long yield currencies short Jpy. Chf getting to past intervention levels staying away
Dr Divindre
Dr Divindre Nov 03, 2021 6:58PM ET
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Is bond yield correlated to usdjpy?
Sudhir sharma
Sudhir sharma Nov 03, 2021 5:40PM ET
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gold effect
MAP SR
MAP SR Nov 03, 2021 5:37PM ET
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Not yet.
Manish Jain
Manish Jain Nov 03, 2021 4:46PM ET
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nice
Ali Farhani
Ali Farhani Nov 03, 2021 4:21PM ET
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👌
 
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