Daily Forex Market Preview, 08/10/2018
Australia released its retail sales report. Data showed that retail sales increased 0.3% on the month, matching estimates. In Japan, the household spending report showed a 2.8% increase on the year. This beat estimates of a flat reading. However, the average cash earnings rose just 0.9% missing estimates of a 1.3% increase. This was, however, better compared to the previous month’s revised print of 1.6% increase.
Germany’s factory orders report showed a rebound in August. This came amid a decline in domestic demand was offset by foreign demand. Factory orders were seen rising 2.0% on a month over month basis. This reversed a 0.9% decline in July.
The German PPI data was also released which showed that producer prices advanced at the fastest pace in 11 months in August. German PPI rose 3.1% on the year in August extending July’s gains of 2.9%.
In the UK, house prices fell unexpectedly. Data from Lloyds (LON:LLOY) Bank and IHS Markit showed housing prices falling 0.2%. This was below estimates of a 0.2% increase.
The NY trading session showed that the U.S. economy added a lower number of jobs. Data from the labor department showed the U.S. economy added 134,000 jobs during the month. This was below estimates of 185,000.
However, the U.S. unemployment rate fell to fresh lows of 3.7% beating estimates and down from previous month’s 3.9%. Average hourly earnings rose 2.8% on the year.
The commerce department also released a report showing imports increased more than exports. The data showed the U.S. trade deficit widening in August to $53.2 billion.
Data from Canada showed that the economy posted a sharp rebound in the labor market. Canada’s unemployment rate fell to 5.9% in September while adding 63,300 net jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis.
The markets open to a quiet trading day today. The Canadian and the U.S. markets are closed on account of a bank holiday. The European trading session will see the release of the German import prices data. The industrial production numbers follow this and later on the Eurozone Sentix investor confidence report will be coming out.
EUR/USD intraday analysis
EUR/USD (1.1514): The euro currency posted a modest rebound, but price action was stuck near the resistance level area of 1.1547 1.1525 region. With the resistance level now established, price action is expected to trend lower. The lower support at 1.1435 remains the key level of interest to the downside. A break down below this level could potentially push the currency pair lower to the next support level at 1.1315.
GBP/USD intraday analysis
GBP/USD (1.3110):
The GBP/USD currency pair managed to break out from the resistance level of 1.3054 – 1.3028 region. The upside bounce could potentially shift the bias to the upside. However, we expect a rebound back to the breached resistance to establish support. Forming support here could mean a possible rebound in price action. The resistance level at 1.3250 is likely to be the target to the upside. In the event of a failure to establish support, the cable could ease back below and settle into a range.
XAU/USD intraday analysis
XAU/USD (1196.56): Gold prices continue the consolidation with the 20-period moving average on the 4-hour chart holding the declines for the moment. We expect the sideways price action in gold prices to continue. The resistance level at 1212.05 remains the upside target that could be tested. To the downside, a break down below the 20-period EMA could signal a retest back to the 1193.40 region. In the near term, gold prices are likely to maintain the ranging price action.