US March retail sales came in way above forecast. Headline was up 9.8% versus the forecast 5.8% – ex-autos was 8.4% against the expected 5.0%.
Astonishingly, the US 10-year yield is actually down on a US retail sales number approaching a 10% gain in the month. I'm not entirely sure what that says other than the mild reaction in yields would suggest that a growth tantrum is not on the cards anytime soon.
Maybe it's a function of interchangeable central bank assessments that sees global central banks move to the Fed dual mandate's beat,
Or more likely, what a few intelligent economists pointed out beforehand, forecasting US retail sales to any degree of accuracy was next to impossible.
Household income was projected up around 20% in the month thanks to stimulus cheques. So it was complicated to estimate beforehand what that would translate into consumer spending. So apparently, those checks arriving on doormats found their way into cash registers at a much quicker pace than anyone had expected, providing some excellent eye candy but might be pretty meaningless to the market's purview, let alone the FOMC's " string theory" or policy mandates.