Breaking News
0

U.S. Q4 GDP Growth Remains On Track For Moderate Slowdown

By James PicernoMarket OverviewDec 06, 2018 07:07AM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/us-q4-gdp-growth-remains-on-track-for-moderate-slowdown-200365522
U.S. Q4 GDP Growth Remains On Track For Moderate Slowdown
By James Picerno   |  Dec 06, 2018 07:07AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This article has already been saved in your Saved Items
 

Early futures trading points to another rocky session for the US stock market today, in part due to rising concern over trade relations with China. Judging by the current outlook for US economic output in the fourth quarter, however, the macro trend still looks set to post moderate growth in GDP for 2018’s final three months, based on a set of nowcasts compiled by The Capital Spectator.

The median nowcast for Q4 is currently 2.6% (seasonally adjusted annual rate), which marks a fractional downtick vs. the outlook published on Nov. 27. Once again, the estimate reaffirms that US growth peaked earlier this year. If today’s median nowcast is correct, real GDP is headed for a second round of softer quarterly growth following the strong 4.2% rise in Q2 and Q3’s 3.5% gain.

Projecting GDP in terms of year-over-year changes also indicates that growth has peaked. The chart below shows estimates for one-year GDP comparisons, based on the average forecast of eight models (including ARIMA, VAR and neural net applications) calculated by The Capital Spectator. The outlook anticipates that the 3.0% annual increase in real GDP in the third quarter will edge down to 2.8% in Q4 and slip further in 2019.

From the perspective of the Federal Reserve’s vice chairman, the economy remains on sturdy footing. “Right now I think the US economy is in good shape, and we can talk about risky scenarios, but I think the baseline outlook is very solid,” Richard Clarida said earlier this week.

Nonetheless, the stock market appears to be discounting higher odds of softer growth, perhaps well below current expectations.

“There are so many forces weighing against markets right now, whether it’s the China slowdown, weak European data, Fed hikes, uncertainty around trade and now Brexit as well,” notes Bilal Hafeez, head of fixed-income research for EMEA at Nomura. “We really need to see some stabilization in any of those factors to see markets stabilize now.”

U.S. Q4 GDP Growth Remains On Track For Moderate Slowdown
 

Related Articles

U.S. Q4 GDP Growth Remains On Track For Moderate Slowdown

Add a Comment

Comment Guidelines

We encourage you to use comments to engage with users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind: 

  • Enrich the conversation
  • Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed.
  • Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically.
  •  Use standard writing style. Include punctuation and upper and lower cases.
  • NOTE: Spam and/or promotional messages and links within a comment will be removed
  • Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user.
  • Don’t Monopolize the Conversation. We appreciate passion and conviction, but we also believe strongly in giving everyone a chance to air their thoughts. Therefore, in addition to civil interaction, we expect commenters to offer their opinions succinctly and thoughtfully, but not so repeatedly that others are annoyed or offended. If we receive complaints about individuals who take over a thread or forum, we reserve the right to ban them from the site, without recourse.
  • Only English comments will be allowed.

Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at Investing.com’s discretion.

Write your thoughts here
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
Post also to:
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Thanks for your comment. Please note that all comments are pending until approved by our moderators. It may therefore take some time before it appears on our website.
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Add Chart to Comment
Confirm Block

Are you sure you want to block %USER_NAME%?

By doing so, you and %USER_NAME% will not be able to see any of each other's Investing.com's posts.

%USER_NAME% was successfully added to your Block List

Since you’ve just unblocked this person, you must wait 48 hours before renewing the block.

Report this comment

I feel that this comment is:

Comment flagged

Thank You!

Your report has been sent to our moderators for review
Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.
Continue with Google
or
Sign up with Email