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U.S. Dollar: Recovery or Downside Continuation?

Published 01/30/2023, 09:00 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:32 AM

FX markets were largely in a consolidation phase last week, partly due to holidays in the Asia Pacific region and a lack of Tier 1 data throughout the week. Further contributing to price action in recent weeks are China’s reopening, lower gas prices and a narrowing divergence between US growth and the rest of the world.

Consequently, there has been a bout of profit taking with EUR/USD struggling at the 1.09 handle, USD/JPY bouncing back from 129.00 and GBP/USD faltering at 1.2450. The main mover of the past week has been the Aussie dollar (AUD) off the back of hotter-than-expected inflation print. This may have been the reason why we have seen markets reprice a higher cash rate.

The consensus view according to economists polled by Reuters is that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may hike the Fed Funds Rate by 25bps — the attention will be placed on the accompanying statement and Chair Powell’s presser, which is likely to emphasise that the Fed is not there yet with regard to hitting peak rates and thus signal further hikes are to come.

This has been made evident by Fed communication recently, with many officials focusing on getting rates up to 5%. The Fed could soften its language regarding future rate hikes within the statement to signal that a pause is on the horizon. As it stands, its current guidance is relatively open-ended, promising “ongoing increases”, and perhaps opting to shift towards a “further increase” in the target rate. Such a change could prompt the USD to trend lower.

Elsewhere, there is a plethora of data for market participants to digest with ISM PMIs and Non-Farm Payrolls on tap. This is perhaps where the bulk of the action could be felt in the FX space. A reminder that weak survey data as well as lower wages in the jobs report has been a key factor in this window of USD weakness and thus a continuation of such weakness would likely keep the pressure on the greenback.

That being said, on the technical front, the USD has yet to break support at 101.00-15 and major USD pairs failing to crack above key topside levels heading into month-end. However, the overriding theme is lower USD for the time being.

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