US Dollar Index Speculator Positions
Large currency speculators lowered their net positions in the US Dollar Index futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.
The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 26,677 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday May 14th. This was a weekly decrease of -1,556 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,233 net contracts.
This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position lowering by -6,691 contracts (to a weekly total of 40,211 contracts) compared to the gross bearish position which decreased by -5,135 contracts for the week (to a total of 13,534 contracts).
US dollar speculators cut back on their bullish positions for the second straight week and for the fourth time out of the past five weeks. The overall standing has now fallen to the lowest level in seven weeks and the overall USD Index sentiment is below the 30,000 contract level for the past nine weeks after a previous streak above this threshold for thirty-two weeks.
Individual Currencies Data this week: Yen and Euro positions rebound
In the other major currency contracts data, we saw two substantial changes (+ or – 10,000 contracts) in the speculators category this week.
The Euro speculator position rebounded this week as the overall bearish position retreated by over 10,000 contracts or about 10 percent. The euro position had seen increasing bearish positions in the previous three weeks and for seven out of the previous eight weeks. The current euro speculator standing remains very bearish but this week’s improvement brought the net level under the -100,000 contract threshold for the first time in four weeks.
The Japanese yen, like the euro, has been in a deep bearish position in recent months. This week saw that bearish position reduced by over 32 percent as the net position improved by over +30,000 contracts. The current standing is now at the least bearish level of the past eight weeks.
Overall, the major currencies that saw improving speculator positions this week were the euro (10,804 weekly change in contracts), British pound sterling (3,561 contracts), Japanese yen (30,137 contracts), New Zealand dollar (1,304 contracts) and the Mexican peso (3,518 contracts).
The currencies whose speculative bets declined this week were the US dollar index (-1,556 weekly change in contracts), Swiss franc (-431 contracts), Canadian dollar (-1,473 contracts) and the Australian dollar (-6,997 contracts).
Other Notables for the week:
Australian dollar speculator positions fell this week to the most bearish level since November 6th of 2018. The Aussie spec bets have fallen for three out of the past four weeks and crossed the -60,000 contract threshold for the first time since 2018. Overall, the AUD contracts have remained in bearish territory since March 27th of 2018 (a span of 59 weeks).
Mexican peso contracts rebounded slightly this week after falling for three weeks in a row. The peso contract remains the only major currency in an overall bullish position besides the US dollar index. The peso spec position reached a record high bullish level on April 16th at 156,030 contracts and despite the recent cool off, the current position is just slightly below the record level with a total of 148,207 contracts this week.
See the table and individual currency charts below.
Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price
EuroFX:
The Euro large speculator standing this week was a net position of -95,301 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 10,804 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -106,105 net contracts.
British Pound Sterling:
The large British pound sterling speculator level was a net position of -3,318 contracts in the data reported this week. This was a weekly lift of 3,561 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,879 net contracts.
Japanese Yen:
Large Japanese yen speculators totaled a net position of -61,580 contracts in this week’s data. This was a weekly advance of 30,137 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -91,717 net contracts.
Swiss Franc:
The Swiss franc speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -40,010 contracts in the data through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -431 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,579 net contracts.
Canadian Dollar:
Canadian dollar speculators resulted in a net position of -47,588 contracts this week. This was a decline of -1,473 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -46,115 net contracts.
Australian Dollar:
The large speculator positions in Australian dollar futures equaled a net position of -64,046 contracts this week in the data ending Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,997 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -57,049 net contracts.
New Zealand Dollar:
The New Zealand dollar speculative standing reached a net position of -11,438 contracts this week in the latest COT data. This was a weekly lift of 1,304 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,742 net contracts.
Mexican Peso:
Mexican peso speculators was a net position of 148,207 contracts this week. This was a weekly lift of 3,518 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 144,689 net contracts.
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).