Please try another search
Forecasts that relative underperformers in the equities space are poised for a turnaround are a hardy perennial. Still, the expected change always seems to be postponed for several of the usual suspects. Notably, projections that foreign, small-cap, and value stocks are set to outperform their broad US, large-cap, and growth counterparts are facing new headwinds this year.
Profiling trends through pairs of ETFs continue to tell a story of failed breakouts and frustrated expectations, based on data through yesterday’s close (Mar. 27). Let’s start with US vs. foreign shares. Last year’s sharp losses for equities nearly everywhere gave equities ex-US a lift in relative terms. But the foreign edge is fading so far this year as US shares (VTI) and foreign developed markets (VEA) post comparable results following a reversal of fortunes for American stocks.
The trend barely wavered for US stocks (VTI) over shares in emerging markets (VWO). The VTI:VWO ratio wobbled a bit over the past year, but the upside bias for US companies has emerged no worse for wear on this front.
There has been renewed hope within the US market that value and small-cap shares would finally enjoy rallies that outperform growth and big-cap shares, respectively. Recent history offered reason to think these trend changes had finally arrived, but the latest market activity has again dashed those hopes.
The relative strength for small-cap stocks (IJR) has fallen hard lately vs. big-cap names (SPY).
A similar reversal of fortunes befell the recent rebound in value stocks (IWD) over growth shares (IWF) in the large-cap space.
Part of the unwinding of relative strength for value and small-cap risk factors is linked to the revival in risk-on sentiment generally for US equities, based on the ratio for high-beta stocks (SPHB) vs. low-volatility names (SPLV).
The rebound in risk-on sentiment is also clear from the renewed weakness in the perceived safe haven of utilities stocks (XLU) vs. broad-defined equities (SPY).
To the extent that firmer confidence about the future and animal spirits have created new headwinds for small-cap, value, and foreign shares, the recent bank turmoil in the US may be a sign that it’s premature to give up hope for those long-suffering markets.
The caveat is that relative outperformance won’t count for much if the bear market resumes for risk assets generally.
If I had to distill the stock market down to two primary words, I would likely choose “emotion” and “risk.” Whenever you approach the market, one of the main factors which should...
After weeks of listless action, the Russell 2000 (IWM) has suddenly come to life. A second day of strong buying ranked as accumulation, has offered volume comparable to the selling...
Many analysts say Tesla is overvalued But Elon Musk has promised star figures for this year Is it time to sell the stock or ride its upward momentum? Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has...
Are you sure you want to block %USER_NAME%?
By doing so, you and %USER_NAME% will not be able to see any of each other's Investing.com's posts.
%USER_NAME% was successfully added to your Block List
Since you’ve just unblocked this person, you must wait 48 hours before renewing the block.
I feel that this comment is:
Thank You!
Your report has been sent to our moderators for review
Add a Comment
We encourage you to use comments to engage with other users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind:
Enrich the conversation, don’t trash it.
Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed.
Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically. Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user. Racism, sexism and other forms of discrimination will not be tolerated.
Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at Investing.com’s discretion.