What is to be expected for the Week ahead from March 4th to 8th?
Economic Calendar: EU PPI on Mon, RBA Interest Rate and EU Retail Sales on Tue and AUS GDP ,BOE Governor's Speech, EU GDP , BOC Interest Rate Decision on Wed, BOJ/BOE/ECB Interest Rate Decision ,ECB Monetary Policy Statement on Thu , JPN GDP, US Non Farm Payrolls , US /CAD Unemployment Rate on Fri are the most important data that is expected this Week.
Weekly Summary: USD strengthened against EUR,AUD,NZD,CHF, GBP , CAD and was flat against JPY and SGD. SGD was the strongest but gained only 30 pips and EUR was the weakest losing 174 pips .EURSGD and GBPSGD was the best crosses with a total move of 228/215 pips within a week.
EURUSD closed at 13020 which was well below the Open and < S5, EUR was < S2 against GBP and CAD , < S5 against USD,JPY, SGD and was Flat against CHF,AUD and NZD. The Crosses are suggesting that the Downside may be limited in the near term , is due for a retracement Upwards and upside may be limited to 13075-13155 levels .In fact, 13050-13105 may be critical for the Bulls and have to overcome these levels and on the downside we have 12960-12875 levels supported in the near term. GBPUSD closed @ 15040 which was well below the Open and < S4, GBP was < S2 against USD, JPY, < S5 against SGD, >R2 against the CHF,NZD and was Flat against AUD, CAD and EUR . The Crosses are suggesting that the Downside may be limited in the near term , is due for a retracement Upwards and upside may be limited to 15125-15220 levels.
In fact, 15070-15130 may be critical for the Bulls and have to overcome these levels and on the downside we have 14920/14825 levels supported in the near term. USDJPY closed @ 9360 which was near the Open and flat, JPY was near the Open, USD/CHF closed at 9430 which was well above the Open and >R5, CHF was R2 against GBP,CAD , > R5 against USD and was Flat against EUR, AUD and NZD. The Crosses are suggesting that there is more Upside, and the downside may be limited to 9370-25 levels .In fact, 9395-40 may be an opportunity for the Bulls and have resistance near 9500-45/9610 levels and on the downside we have 9325-9270 levels supported in the near term. AUD/USD closed at 10205 which was well below the Open and < S4, AUD was < S2 against USD, JPY , CAD, SGD and was Flat against EUR, GBP,CHF and NZD. The Crosses are suggesting AUD may be caught in a Range until the Breakout, on the downside we have support near 10065-40-00 levels and we have resistance near 10245-90/10350 levels and we may get a downside breakout. In fact, on the upside the Bulls need to overcome 10270-90 levels in the near term which may be difficult as the Bulls lack strength. USD/CAD closed at 10270 which was above the Open but away from the high, CAD was , R2 against CHF and was Flat against GBP, SGD . The Crosses are suggesting that the Downside may be limited in the near term and still upside potential is possible , we may see the breakout Upwards towards 10470/10525/10650 levels and 10245-15/10165 levels needed to be protected .In fact, 10215 may be critical for the Bulls and have to overcome 10345 levels for further push higher .
NZDUSD closed @ 8250 which was well below the Open and R2 against GBP, Flat against EUR,AUD and CHF . The Crosses are suggesting that there is more Downside due to weakness , and the Upside may be limited to 9310-55 levels .In fact, 8310-35 may be an opportunity for the Bears and have support near 8215-8130/8085 levels in the near term. USDSGD closed at 12405 which was above the Open but within the Range and > R1, SGD was < S5 against EUR,GBP,CHF,AUD,NZD and was Flat against USD,JPY, CAD . The Crosses are suggesting that the weakness is due to other crosses and expect it to continue until the breakout , the downside we have support near 12320/12265 levels and we have resistance near 12425/12510 levels. Range trading is expected until the breakout.
Spot Gold closed @ 15761 which was near the Open but within the Range, XAU was within S2 ,Silver is also Flat but Platinum and Palladium are weak . XAU, 15755-875 levels become critical for the Bulls, 15755/15645 levels become Critical for the Bears, 15550 level which is previous month low is a level to pay attention. We still feel the Downside is more possible than the Upside and 15550 may be cracked towards 15300/15150 levels.
Conclusion: Since a slew of important Data announcements are happening in all the countries except for CHF, NZD and SGD, a cautious and choppy trading is expected for this Week . We like to pick Spot Gold again this Week and our Repot on the 17th Feb is still a valid Price Target, but we need to see the Bears cracking the 15645/15550 levels and protecting 15803/15875 levels in the near term for the Price Target towards 15300/15150 levels. We may experience a Range Trading until the Breakout , so Cautious trading approach is needed , and we prefer to Short near the Highs or Cautiously Short after the Break.
The Accuracy of the Long Term View may vary from the Weekly Projected Levels, so it is better to Pay attention to the Daily Report for more scrutinized view. Good Luck and Happy trading for the Week.