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The Thing Bears Don’t Understand About This Bull Market

Published 12/17/2021, 02:39 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

It’s been a volatile few sessions for the S&P 500 as the index keeps jumping between dramatic up and down moves.

Tesla Inc Daily Chart

While we’ve been living with elevated volatility since late November, every bit of down has been matched by an equal amount of up. 

If there is one thing we know about stock market crashes, they are breathtakingly quick. Stop to ask questions and you get left holding the bag. But here we stand, three weeks from the initial Omicron outbreak and the index is still within 1% of all-time highs. If these headlines were going to break us, it would have happened by now.

To further compound bears’ confusion, Wednesday the Fed told us to expect three interest rate hikes next year. Conventional wisdom warns us that rate hikes are bad for stocks, yet prices surged 1.6% on the news.

As I’ve been saying for a while, a market that refuses to go down will eventually go up. Bears have thrown everything they can at this bull and it keeps shrugging it off. If this was going to crash, it would have happened by now. Argue with this market at your peril.

No doubt this bull will die like all of the others that came before it. But this is not that point and bears will continue getting humiliated by this stubborn bull.

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) slipped under $1k support last week and that was our final, undeniable signal to get out. Smart traders were already peeling off profits as the stock slipped from $1,200 resistance, but now that we’re under $1k support, there is no excuse to keep holding.

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I’m not giving up on this stock and it will probably make higher highs at some point, but I don’t need to hold through the pullback in the meantime. And in fact, I’m looking forward to buying back in at lower prices.

For the time being, this doesn’t get interesting until it gets back above $1k. Until then, keep watching from the safety of the sidelines.

Latest comments

Liquidity is draining amd safe haven currencies are in play…. Lookmat thr RRP to see a stash of cash ! Crash well intontbe making and tbe printers are all shutting down at once … its over
Written like a man who didn’t own stock 13 years ago. It will go up. Trick is to get be out before it tanks. No one rings a bell before a correction.
Wow, in all crashes there are people who refuse to see it until it’s too late
This article is weak, last week, to be precise.
neverrr going to see a thou again.
Some must have slept all day yesterday. The bull market may not be over but it’s due to a continued rotation. Now that the generals are negatively involved, there will be a bigger impact on some indexes. Can the Fed orchestrate a soft landing?
I think they signaled just that. still a very needful but dovish commentary.
I think the start of a pullback is already under way. With an overwhelming amount of bad news with inflation and sales going down along with the speed Omicron is moving its going to really shake things up. The Fed’s hawkish pivot should be dually noted. They need to get QE under control. In doing so its going to play a big part in bringing stock valuations back to a more normal valuation. This ultra loose monetary policy will be followed by an equally forceful pull back. This is also coming at a time when sales are down because prices are through the roof. With the amount of margin in the market it could make a pull back extremely violent. Margin calls can make investors forced to sell. Which will be exacerbated the amount of selling. Punishing the dip buyers that try to catch the falling knife.
This bull market is overly optimistic based and current projections of QE taper and raising interest rates. Of all the moving parts of the market there are a lot of signs showing market breadth is slowing considerably. Along with it the sales have declined and China has halved its growth outlook. The elephant in the room is the amount of defaults that loom which all started with Chinas Evergrande. This will ripple through the markets. Many developers will have issues servicing their debt. Especially with so many owning shopping centers or malls that are vacant because of high prices. Everything from steel to oil is starting to retract. Vehicle sales will continue to tumble with the chip shortages. In the event everything quickly picks up pace we will be looking at energy costs that are well over 100% higher making paychecks run out mors quickly. There is one heck of a storm brewing. Which way will it fall? The thing is either way stock valuations are way too high for the current cond
I've taken notice this morning that SQQQ has mostly traded between $6 and $7 for close to a month. Meaning no new lows and hints of indifference when powerful point gains are in play.
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