Get 40% Off
⚠ Earnings Alert! Which stocks are poised to surge?
See the stocks on our ProPicks radar. These strategies gained 19.7% year-to-date.
Unlock full list

Why You'll Want To Avoid This Bounce

Published 03/26/2020, 01:17 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

It looks like we are in the process of the initial bounce, but it's a bounce which typically forces 'weak hand' buyers to panic themselves into positions; these buyers will quickly sell when markets start to retest Monday's lows. But, it's a start.

We—and America in particular—are a long way from the end of the COVID rampage. When death and infection rates pick up we are going to see markets weaken and then we will be looking at lows, or maybe new lows. On the plus side, trading volume was higher in accumulation.

The S&P improvements are working against a relative performance drop against the Russell 2000. Technicals remain weak and show no divergences.

  SPX Daily Chart

The NASDAQ closed slightly lower yesterday, finishing at the top of its recent congestion range. Selling volume was well down on Tuesday's buying (but this volume was well down on last week's). Technicals remain weak.

COMPQ Daily Chart

NASDAQ Bullish Percents have moved sharply higher in one of the strongest reversals in breadth metrics.  When markets do move into a retest of swing lows, we will want to see breadth metrics, like the bullish percents, hold on.

BPCOMPQ Daily Chart

The Russell 2000 (below via iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:IWM)) closed a little higher as its performance is caught in the middle between the S&P and NASDAQ. Buying volume yesterday was well down on Tuesday's—the index still has much work to do.

IWM Daily Chart

For today, we want to see indices push beyond the recent consolidations and set up challenges for 20-day MAs and maybe 50-day MAs. This is a bounce which will establish a swing low, but it could be months before we see a meaningful rally from indices.

Latest comments

Sorry I meant to write Norwegian*
Think i should sell Nirwegian cruise?
I agree with your views Declan...myself only half invested...am keeping dry powder for the next market mayhem.
=Dead cat bounce then
Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.