After the quarter-percent rate increase, the market continues to rally off recent lows. Now all the major indices besides the NASDAQ 100 Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) have cleared resistance from their 50-Day moving average as seen in the above below.
So far, the Russell 2000 iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:IWM) is leading the way with a second close over its 50-DMA. Now we can watch for the rest of the indices to follow in IWM's footsteps.
With the recent downward trend in the market, many investors have taken a defensive investing approach buying more commodities and precious metals.
Now, with the current rally, ETFs such as silver via iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:SLV), sugar via Tecrium Sugar (NYSE:CANE), and Oil via United States Oil Fund, LP (NYSE:USO) have taken a breather.
However, they still have upside momentum and have consolidated showing that investors are still looking for their safety.
This gives us two potential trading opportunities.
While the macro-economic situation has not changed with increasing rates and inflation, we can continue to watch for trading opportunities within commodities.
On the other hand, equities are also showing more potential with many companies trending upwards on a short-term basis. Having said that, our trading approach continues to be from a rangebound/ stagflation perspective. We continue to see potential in commodities since we expect inflation to increase along with supply chain disruptions.
However, we are also looking for trades in equities as we see the short-term potential to the upside. While the market may not make new highs, we can still watch for entries based on our recent lows holding and a breakout over key resistance levels such as the 50-DMA in the indices.
ETF Summary
- S&P 500 (SPY) 446 200-DMA to clear next.
- Russell 2000 (IWM) Needs to hold over 207.
- Dow (DIA) 350 the 200-DMA.
- NASDAQ (QQQ) 352.52 the 50-DMA.
- KRE (Regional Banks) 73.17 the 50-DMA to clear.
- SMH (Semiconductors) 271.76 50-DMA to clear.
- IYT (Transportation) Needs to hold over 260.
- IBB (Biotechnology) 130 to hold.
- XRT (Retail) 79.18 to hold.
- Junk Bonds (JNK) Breaking down. Watching to find support.
- SLV (Silver) Watching for minor pullback. Needs to hold over 102.
- USO (US Oil Fund) 75.18 the 10-DMA to clear.
- TLT (iShares 20+ Year Bonds) 134.21 gap to fill.
- DBA (Agriculture) 21.35 minor support.