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Fed Day; Crypto Funk

By Mati GreenspanMarket OverviewJul 05, 2017 06:30AM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/that-39;s-just-the-way-it-is-200199159
Fed Day; Crypto Funk
By Mati Greenspan   |  Jul 05, 2017 06:30AM ET
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As if South Korea doesn't have enough problems at the moment, Korea's most popular exchange site bithumb, which is the number one crypto exchange by volume in the last 24 hours, and responsible for an estimated 10% of global cryptocurrency trading volumes, was hacked.

This hack attack does seem limited in scope. Overall, only about 3% of users reported having issues and though some headlines are saying that more than 100 Billion Korean Wons were stolen, that amount in US dollars comes out to only about $1 Million.

Still, this type of event serves to illustrate a sore issue for alternative investors that many of these online exchange sites are simply not secure. In this case, it was enough that the home computer of a bithumb employee was breached to compromise the personal details of clients funds.

Exchange sites can be very useful to obtain cryptocurrencies but please don't keep your money in an unregulated marketplace. If you really want to hold the physical keys the best way to do this is by using a digital wallet.

Today's Highlights

Caution to the Wind

Fed Day

Crypto Funk

Please note: All data, figures & graphs below are valid as of July 5th. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you're prepared to lose.

Market Overview

With all the talk about North Korea in the media over the last few days, it's very strange that the markets remain complacent.

Usually, if there is a factor of risk, tensions between the USA, Russia, and China, or the like, we should see some type of flight to safe assets.

Well, Kim Jong Un has just demonstrated that he has the capability to send a missile as far as Alaska, and may have the ability to nuke Tokyo very shortly. Yet, the markets remain eerily calm.

Sure, the 4th of July could be partially responsible for muted volumes and activity but assets like Gold have had very little downtime and currencies like the Yen, and the US Dollar have been open throughout the holiday.

There was a light sell off at the end of the European session yesterday but stocks in Asia this morning seem oddly resilient. Here's the CHINA 50 index. Notice the last candle on the left showing today's performance and notable recovery as Asian investors throw caution to the wind.

China 50 Chart
China 50 Chart

Fed Day

This evening, or around lunchtime on Wall Street, the US Federal Reserve Bank will release the minutes from their meeting three weeks ago.

The Fed, along with other central banks around the world, have been trying very hard lately to emphasize that the 2008 financial crisis is finally behind us and would love to get back to business as usual.

During their last meeting, they did manage to raise the interest rates by 0.25% to 1.25%, despite the economy not performing according to their expectations. They'll have another meeting this month on the 26th and markets are currently predicting a 0% chance that they'll raise the rates again.

For short term traders, an unexpected move by the fed could mean great gains, but for long term investors, it's more important to keep in mind the projections of where we'll be in a year or more. So let's take a look...

Here, we can see the implied market probability of the Fed rate will be unchanged at 1.25%, raised to 1.5%, or raised to 1.75%, by August of 2018...

Current Implied Probilities
Current Implied Probilities

So, the most likely outcome is that we'll be exactly where we are now, with a fair possibility of rates going up ever so slightly.

This could explain why the US Dollar has been underperforming over the last few weeks. The Fed is obviously talking tough and encouraging their counterparts to do the same, but markets are betting that they won't be making any further advances on this front any time soon.

Crypto Market

At this point, the lack of excitement in the traditional markets seems to be mirrored in the digital world.

The overall market cap of all cryptocurrencies has remained steady at around $100 Billion for an entire month.

Total Market Capitalization
Total Market Capitalization

Though awareness has been gaining steadily and there have been many positive updates about new regulation and legalization of cryptos in various regions, for the time being, things are pretty stagnant.

Taking things into perspective, it's really difficult to complain. Many of these coins have risen thousands of percentage points over the last year. So, a period of calm should really be a blessing. The fact that it's holding in place should actually be seen as a very positive sign and we hope that it stays this way for a while as the markets get used to the new valuations.

The triangle patterns that we've been tracking are holding up well. To recap here are the technical patterns for Bitcoin and Ethereum.

BTC & ETHEREUM
BTC & ETHEREUM

So... until we see a breakout of these formations, we should probably take a look at the rest of our portfolios and be sure that everything else is on track. Remember, the key to any good investment is sustainability and diversification.

Disclosure: This content is for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or an investment recommendation. Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you're prepared to lose.

Fed Day; Crypto Funk
 

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Fed Day; Crypto Funk

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