With the lifecycle of Treakisym extended through the in-licensing of liquid formulations from Eagle in 2017, SymBio Pharmaceuticals Ltd (T:4582) is refining its plans to establish its own salesforce to market Treakisym (and other drugs) in Japan. While the company has not yet made a final decision, we think it is highly likely to move to self-commercialization in order to improve operating margins after its marketing arrangement with Eisai expires. Therefore, we now model self-commercialization in our base-case valuation. This more than offsets the later anticipated filing date for rigosertib iv and lower peak penetration for Treakisym in first-line non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma and lifts our valuation to $211m.
Eagle, DLBCL and Eisai expiry favor own salesforce
Treakisym in-market sales reported by partner Eisai grew by 61% to $67m in 2017 (NHI price basis), supported by two new indications approved in 2016. The extension of Treakisym’s lifecycle through the in-license of liquid formulations from Eagle Pharmaceuticals and the potential for the r/r diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) Phase III to drive further sales growth from 2021 (if successful), provide a strong case for SymBio to establish its own salesforce to market Treakisym and other drugs after its existing marketing arrangement with Eisai expires in December 2020; in-licensing opportunities could complement this strategy. The company expects to decide in 2018 whether to adopt a self-commercialization strategy.
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