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Sunday’s Setup: Tumble To Come

ByTim Knight
Published 05/22/2022, 12:32 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

The super-surge-rally that took place in the final 90 minutes (or thereabouts) on Friday was absolutely comic. It was driven, I suppose, by OpEX silliness.

Indeed, I was so confident of the silliness that I acquired June QQQ puts (super aggressive for me) a few minutes before the closing bell.

ES

ES Chart

RTY

RTY Chart

NQ

NQ Chart

Let’s just say I think the bulls have set themselves up for Yet Another Tumble.

Latest comments

Market looks great so far! Of course weve seen this before. Not being disrespectful, but I hope your wrong! Bought every dip there has been since this all started!
Nick, Have you looked at Tim Knight's website and "resume?" To me, he looks like a semi-pro (with significant experience and success)...  What did you buy on Friday 05/20/22?
lol......what was the strike price and the cost for each contract? Odds are that the sum of both isnt much below where the market is at.
Keith: Respectfully, what do you mean by "the sum of both" (strike and price)?  Why would you, or anyone else, sum those and find that sum particularly meaningful to whether or not the decision to buy QQQ calls had merit?
Willie Booker, We don't know if Tim Knight's QQQ calls are a bad trade until he sells the position.  I agree he may have been early.  But, what (do you suppose) is his argument for being "super aggressive" and putting his money where his mouth is?? Remember, he put a bunch of money on the line.  Did you, along with Jeff Page, do the opposite and buy calls?
I bought Aussie dollar after open and made a quick buck. His trade could make money sure, but bad risk/reward.
Steve Martin, I'm inclined to agree with you as the market will likely have continued follow-through to the upside as Jeff Page's calls purchase suggests. Two questions:  How much follow-through do you see for Monday, and when (do you believe) would be the better moment to buy puts? Bonus question: If you look at Tim Knight's website and "resume," you see that he is likely a semi-pro (with significant experience and success).  On this basis, are you sure you want to knock his decision to buy puts near Fridays' close? 2nd Bonus question: While his decision may prove to be sub-optimal, what (do you suppose) is his argument for being "super aggressive" and putting his money where his mouth is??  Remember, he put a bunch of money on the line.  Did you, along with Jeff Page, do the opposite and buy calls?
Lol nothing like publishing bad trades for all to see
🤣 they want us to loose money so they can gain money
Looks like I should have replied directly to you.  Got it now. Willie Booker, We don't know if Tim Knight's QQQ calls are a bad trade until he sells the position.  I agree he may have been early.  But, what (do you suppose) is his argument for being "super aggressive" and putting his money where his mouth is?? Remember, he put a bunch of money on the line.  Did you, along with Jeff Page, do the opposite and buy calls?
Buying the puts at Fridays vlise was foolish
Looks like I should have replied directly to you.  Got it now. Steve, I'm inclined to agree with you as the market will likely have continued follow-through to the upside as Jeff Page's calls purchase suggests. Two questions:  How much follow-through do you see for Monday, and when (do you believe) would be the better moment to buy puts? Bonus question: If you look at Tim Knight's website and "resume," you see that he is likely a semi-pro (with significant experience and success).  On this basis, are you sure you want to knock his decision to buy puts near Fridays' close? 2nd Bonus question: While his decision may prove to be sub-optimal, what (do you suppose) is his argument for being "super aggressive" and putting his money where his mouth is?? Remember, he put a bunch of money on the line.  Did you, along with Jeff Page, do the opposite and buy calls?
Correction...  Jeff Page, Hmm, that's an interesting strategy.  So, when did you buy the puts?  I sense you had them in hand well before you bought the calls.  Is that correct?
Jeff Page, Hmm, that's an interesting strategy.  So, when did you buy the puts?  I sense you had them in hand well before you bought the puts.  Is that correct?
I bought calls at turn around cheap to protect my puts from follow follow through Monday morning. Protection was cheap. Probably out Monday around 10:30 CT.
Looks like I should have replied directly to you.  Got it now. Jeff Page, Hmm, that's an interesting strategy.  So, when did you buy the puts?  I sense you had them in hand well before you bought the calls.  Is that correct?
I am expecting a rally now for a month convincing market it is bullish then it will go down hard again upto 31% minus on SP500
BP, Why do you expect a rally (from this point) to last (about) a month?  Surely, despite the usually fluctuations, you're not saying the market will be generally up for the next 30 days.  That is, close "significantly" higher in 30 days time?  Please explain how you arrived at your forecast.
I think for $ES they were trying to bounce out of bear market territory
Sure seems like there is nothing bullish about the market at all. The Fed isnt coming to the rescue like most hope.
only one way to find out...
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