It was a buyers market on Mar. 31, quite literally, with sellers absent until the final 30 minutes. Volumes across the market were very light, with the Qs and S&P e-minis trading with volumes well below the norm.
There was quite literally an absence of sellers. Once the sellers showed up at the end of the day, the S&P 500 and Q dropped about 50 bps, with the S&P 500 giving-up more than half of its gains, rather fast, due to a massive $5.5 billion sell imbalance on the closing cross. It seemed the sellers were waiting for the end of the day.
The first day of the month has been a good one for equities since November, and except for January, every month’s first day has seen a rally. Tomorrow could be different for a few reasons: first, because we get the ISM data at 10 AM, and second because the market is closed on Friday, but the BLS job report will still be released.
A potential breakdown in the S&P 500 isn’t dead. The index did hit the upper trend line today, and that is where it failed. At this point, we could incur a few extra days of sideways trading if these levels hold or trade higher. However, the rising trendline off the March 2020 lows is the index’s biggest threat.
Square
It was a good day for Square Inc (NYSE:SQ), but not good enough. The stock stalled and failed at resistance on the downtrend. The RSI still looks decent, so maybe the downtrend will lose.
Disney
Disney (NYSE:DIS) fell through the uptrend, and now it sits on support at $184.50. A break of support would send it down to $158. The RSI has been trending lower for a long-time and confirms a lower pattern.
Nike
Nike (NYSE:NKE) has struggled around the $145 level for a while. It nearly broke support at $131 but managed to snap back quickly. Probably suggesting the stock heads higher and test $145 one more time; we should know once it reaches $137.
