Stock Markets to Rise or Fall In Feb?

Dax 40 March is forming a sideways consolidation as volatility decreases, which is normal in both a bull and bear trend. We do not know how long this process will take but there is definitely no sell signal at this stage.

FTSE 100 March holds a 3-day range from 7710 up to 7780.

Remember, when support is broken, it usually acts as resistance and vice-versa.

Today's Analysis

Dax March held 18 ticks above support at 15000/14950 to hit my target and minor resistance at 15170/200. If we continue higher look for strong resistance at last week's high of 15300/330. Shorts need stops above 15380. A break higher is a buy signal.

First, support again at 15000/14950. A break lower targets 14870/850 then strong support at 14770/720.

FTSE March reversed from first resistance at 7775/95 this week to my target of 7730/10 before a bounce from 7690. I think we are establishing a sideways trend but i will have to wait for a bit longer for reliable trend lines to trade.

We should have strong resistance at 7745/65 today. Shorts need stops above 7785. A break higher is a buy signal targeting 7825 before a retest of 7850/60. 

First support at 7695/75. Longs need stops below 7865.

S&P 500 Futures March is forming a new sideways range as we ignore the 3990/4010 area. I will have to wait for a bit longer to draw accurate tradeable trend lines but will do my best to identify support and resistance at this stage.

I would forget running a swing trade and try to scalp the levels I provide.

Nasdaq 100 Futures March we were offered 200 ticks on the short and another 200 ticks profit on the long at yesterday's support level.

Dow Jones Futures March trades in an erratic sideways channel for 3 months. Unfortunately, longs at first support at 33600/500 were stopped on the slide to 33347 before we shot higher to 33850.

Today's Analysis

Emini S&P March should have minor support at 4005/3995. If you try a long stop below 3985. A break lower can target 3970/60, perhaps as far as 3940/35.

Longs at 4005/3995 can target 4030, perhaps as far as 4050. A break above 4060 can target 4075 and 4095.

Nasdaq March shorts at 11950/12050 worked perfectly this week, hitting first support at 11730/680 for profit-taking. A nice 200 ticks.

The long also worked perfectly with a 300-tick bounce from 11604. Did you make 400 ticks on the long and the short yesterday?

The bounce is quickly taking us back to my sell opportunity at 11950/12050 - shorts need stops above 12100. A break higher is a buy signal targeting 12460/480.

Shorts again at 11950/12050 can target 11830/820, perhaps as far as first support at 11730/680 for profit taking today. Longs need stops below 11600.

Emini Dow Jones should have support at 33500/400. Longs need stops below 33300. A break lower can target 33000.

Minor resistance at 33900/34000. A break higher can target 34180/200 before a retest ppf 34430/490.

It is becoming a scalpers market in stock indices - perhaps we will trade sideways into the spring now.

The news has been about as bad as it could get for weeks - the Fed has been trying to take the market down, but it remains firm.

A mild recession and US rates at around 5.25% are priced in. I think we will have to wait for a change of perception before we can start a new trend for stocks.

Actually, I would not be surprised to see stocks trade sideways through the summer, as long as inflation continues to ease very slowly and rates rise very slowly, then pause, all as expected.

There will be no reason for stocks to soar or collapse.