- SPX Monitoring purposes; Covered short SPX 1/31/17 at 2278.87 =.09% gain; Short on 1/30/17 at 2280.90
- Monitoring purposes Gold: GDX on 12/28/16 at 20.25.
- Long-Term Trend monitor purposes: Short SPX on 1/13/16 at 1890.28
We showed this chart Monday and are updated to today’s close, which is the two hour SPY (NYSE:SPY) with a 10-period moving average of the tick. The 10-period of the tick remains above “0” closing today at +127.30 and a bullish sign for the short term. This can change quickly but as for today’s close the trend is still up according the moving average of the tick. Yesterday the NYSE McClellan Oscillator closed yesterday at +88.66 and today at +70.49 even though the market was up modestly, showing internals are getting weaker in the market and a negative divergence. A bearish setup would be for the 10-period MA of the tick to fall below “0” with the McClellan Oscillator also closing below “0”. We will keep our powder dry for now.
Total Put/call ratio (CPC) less than .70, the SPY closed lower 85% of the time in the next five days on average .7%. Yesterday the CPC closed at .66 (our estimate yesterday was .63). Never the less CPC was still below .70 and a bearish sign. The top window is the 5 day average of the CPC and readings below .90 have appeared near market highs. Yesterday’s CPC 5-day average came in at .93 and still not in the bearish camp. We don’t have an estimate for today’s CPC reading but another low reading could push the 5-day average below .90. Upside appears very limited. February 20 (this coming Monday) is a holiday and a lot of the time can mark reversal in the market. For very short term the trend is up but there are divergences.
We updated this chart from yesterday. Its giving good information of what may develop in the coming days. A divergence has showed up both in the Advance/Decline percent and Up down Volume Percent for the short term. There is minor resistance at the November higher near 26.00 and GDX has stalled right below this resistance level. When and if this resistance level is touched or exceeded and the divergence is still present we may exit our long position for a possible retracement down to support near 22.50 range. We don’t won’t to get ahead of ourselves but a potential Head and Shoulders pattern may be forming here; more on that later if more evidence is obtained on the potential setup. Long GDX on 12/28/16 at 20.25.