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S&P Repeating 2000 And 2007 Bear Market Rallies. Is It Different This Time?

Published 04/20/2020, 08:21 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

S&P 500 Weekly Chart

Does history repeat itself exactly? No. Sometimes it rhymes big-times!

This chart looks at the S&P 500 over the past 25-years on a weekly basis.

During the 50% bear markets of 2000-2003 and 2007-2009, the S&P started quality counter-trend rallies very near the first week of spring (3/21).

If the S&P 500 is going to repeat the large bear markets of the past, would it be important to be aware of where counter-trend rallies started and ended? Yes!

The strong rally over the past month started right on schedule, as the low took place on 3/20, similar to the rallies in 2001 and 2008.

The counter-trend rallies in the bear markets mentioned above, both peaked 8-weeks? The trillion-dollar question a month after the 3/20/20 low is; Will it be different this time?

The current S&P decline looks “eerily” like bear markets of the past.

Latest comments

Chris Kimble, what are your thoughts on Corporate Investment Bonds compared to 2008?  We're already at pre-crash levels thanks to the floor provided by the FED.  In 2008, the final re-tracement, 50% of the first drop, corresponded to the final "L" drop of the market.
Like Charlie Brown & football. Go long until Charlie gets close to ball.
Nope...as always and like the others.  You're still digging in the wrong place.
Do you think that "unlimited QE" really means new highs this year?  Certainly, a bullish market after the final low will be the strongest we have ever seen, but I do not think that this is over.
Very good. unfortunately, I didn't see a chart (via phone app) though. hm
Great analysis.
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