My favorite table for a quick look at S&P 500 EPS and revenue revisions across the next 7 quarters. The data still telling a good story. Let’s see if the stock market has something else in mind.
The “forward” 4-quarter estimate rose to $200.04 this weekend, for the first time ever. To think that during the pandemic, the 2020 S&P 500 estimate fell to $125 per share or so, given Ed Yardeni’s work.
S&P 500 data
- The forward 4-quarter estimate rose to $200.04 this week, from $199.63 last week and up from $159 as of Dec. 31, 2020.
- The PE ratio on the S&P 500 at week’s end was 21.6x
- The S&P 500 earnings yield ended the week at 4.62% vs 4.57% last week.
- The Q2 ’21 bottom-up estimate jumped to $46.44 from last week’s $45.21. It was the 17th straight week of either flat or a sequential increase in the Q2 ’21 bottom up estimate. It hasn’t declined sequentially since late March ’21.
S&P 500 revisions – must have liked the financial sector numbers
Data source: IBES by Refinitiv
The Street liked either the Financial sector earnings reports or the Retail Sales data (or both). Note the number and percentage of positive EPS revisions this week.
That’s another plus.
Summary/conclusion
The data is sourced from IBES by Refinitiv, but the table above is our work. Friday’s selloff seems to have spooked a number of people, but let’s see what happens on Monday.
The revision trends are still very positive—look at the first spreadsheet—but the growth rates will slow as we begin to lap the economic recovery which started in 2h ’20.
The market itself will sniff out any change possibly before the numbers do. Invest accordingly.