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Zsombor Komán Birtalan
Dec 17, 2022 1:33AM ET
this guy is bullish forever
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S&P 500 Update: Anticipated Pullback Should Bottom at Around 3800
www.investing.com/analysis/sp-500-update-anticipated-pullback-should-bottom-at-around-3800-200633516
S&P 500 Update: Anticipated Pullback Should Bottom at Around 3800
By Dr. Arnout ter Schure | Dec 15, 2022 02:00PM ET In last week's update (see here), I found for the S&P 500 (SPX) using the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP):
"The SPX should bottom out soon, or has already bottomed out, for green W-a and should start the countertrend rally/bounce labeled green W-b to ideally $4020+/-20. Corrections always move in three waves; after W-b, the index should produce the next leg lower labeled green W-c. Depending on where exactly the W-b tops and the extension of the W-c, I anticipated a low at ideally $3730-3870."
When I provided my update, the index was trading at $3960. It then rallied on Tuesday to $4100 and is now trading at $3885--quite the round trip.
Tuesday's pop was only 1.5% above the anticipated W-b target zone of $4000-4040 and, in addition to that, morphed the price action since the December 1 high into what is called in EWP terms "a flat." Thus, my primary expectation for a countertrend rally followed by another leg lower was validated.
In the hourly chart above, I have upgraded the waves since December 1, black W-a, high by one degree (green became red) compared to last week because of Tuesday's price action. Other than that, not much has changed.
Now the anticipated move lower, red W-c, is underway and subdividing into five smaller (green) waves: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. Currently, we are tracking and trading the sub-waves of green W-3: grey waves i, ii, iii, iv, v.
This pattern shows the fractal nature of the stock market beautifully. Now that we know where the anticipated W-b exactly topped and have knowledge of the sub-waves of red W-c, we can narrow down the ideal target zone for all of the anticipated black W-b. From last week's "$3730-3870" to ideally $3840-3860, assuming the market will follow the ideal Fibonacci-based impulse pattern as shown by the green and grey target zones in Figure 1. Once more price data becomes available, we can narrow down this target zone even further.
Thus, as said last week:
"Once the $3800+/-70 zone is reached, …, we must entertain the notion all of black W-b has already bottomed out. The index will have to move below $3635 (the 76.40% retrace of the October 13 - December 1 rally), with the first warning below $3725, to start to suggest there will not be a more significant C-wave rally to $4300+."
Based on the current price action, I would shift the timing of the low mentioned in my last update from "preferably later next week" to "preferably mid-next week."
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S&P 500 Update: Anticipated Pullback Should Bottom at Around 3800
Comments (15)
Mr Doodl
Dec 16, 2022 5:38AM ET
Nice work! Looking forward to reading about Nasdaq 100, too!
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Stop Lost
Dec 16, 2022 1:32AM ET
See ya at 3300ish.
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JimmyD
Dec 16, 2022 12:22AM ET
So, let me get this straight: if it goes below 3635, it won't get above 4300? Is that what you're claiming?
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Ahmad Bilal Rana
Dec 15, 2022 11:46PM ET
Elliot wave is good in directional market, this one seems to head into consolidation..
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jeff dar
Dec 15, 2022 9:05PM ET
Now that's funny 3800 bottom maybe in 2 weeks when people realize the tsunami that's coming to the S&P 500 3200 3400 for now later God Only Knows God help us all LOL what planet are you living on that's the funniest thing I've heard all day thank you for making my day
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Don Vo
Dec 15, 2022 8:54PM ET
Can wait s&p down to 3600
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Stephen Fa
Dec 15, 2022 7:45PM ET
Some great forecasts lately based on Elliott Waves.
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Dr. Arnout ter Schure
Dec 15, 2022 7:45PM ET
thank you!
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Alex Malmstrom
Dec 15, 2022 6:14PM ET
And the next leg down begins. I'm expecting to see the Intermediate Degree Wave C (weekly time frame) finish around 3100.00, now that the Fed has flushed out the last remaining hopes of the pumpers.
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Michael Ringenberg
Dec 15, 2022 5:55PM ET
Q: Who puts a Dr. in front of their name when it is not related to the field they have received it in?. A: Attention seekers using their credentials in one field to garner automatic acknowledgement in another.
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