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S&P 500 Reached 4300+ Target; What's Next?

ByDr. Arnout ter Schure
Published 08/19/2022, 01:21 PM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

Already in June (see here), I alerted to a potential bullish wedge pattern forming on the S&P 500 (SPX), targeting 4300+—SPX4365-4530, to be exact.

Few believed me back then, but I’ve kept you abreast of the index’s progress, and this week it topped at $4325. Mission accomplished.

But what now? Is the bull run finished?

Two weeks ago (see here), I also shared the bearish Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) option I am tracking.

This week I would like to share a bullish one. Please see figure 1 below.

Figure 1. S&P500 daily chart with detailed EWP count and several technical indicators

The bullish EWP option shows the index completed a more significant 4th wave from March 2020 low and is now in the starting gates for a last more significant impulse, i.e., five-waves move to SPX5500+.

The SPX has, in this case, only completed (green) wave-3 of (red) wave-i of (black) wave-5 and is now working on the multi-day (green) wave-4. Note I already anticipated the current pullback in my update about the Nasdaq 100 a few days ago (See here).

Thus, for the bullish option, the S&P500 should ideally bottom between $4185-4095 (the green target zone; a typical 23.60-38.20% retrace of green wave-3) and then rally ideally to $4435-4525 for (green) wave-5 of (red) wave-i.

From the EWP, we know that in a bullish impulse, after the 1st wave come the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th waves. Thus, when wave-i completes, expect a more significant multi-week pullback for wave-ii. That should be a low-risk buying opportunity for wave-iii.

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Latest comments

I'm just following the momentum. MFI, RSI & we'll get that MACD bear cross I'm all over the puts. VIX gave me great opportunity last Thursday. Nice pop pre-market.
Dr Are you schure about your predictions in the current envoirment ? ( Pun intended)
Market will go down next two weeks All the carrots distributed by biden - two bills
You forrecadt bullish and bearish at the dame time. Fortunetelling? You could use a cristal ball if is all the same…
Yes, because those are the two options the market has. Markets are all about the probability of possibilities. Once you wrap your head around that you’ll truly understand the financial markets.
Cpi is 8.5% so no way spy will hut 5500.. 30 year treasury gives 3.2% which are not seen in last 12 years
Add to that the Fed is still pushing rates up…and plan to continue into next year. These are the times when the word “bullish” is incomplete…everyone forgets to add the “it” to the end!🤭
I prefer your bearish count
I like he said his target is 4300-4365-4530 it hit 4325 then he was right hahaha if you trade even 20pts make you loose and win hahaha
Short-term ****cant be more accurately forevasted than this.
So you give us two options: the stock market can go up or down. That's very helpful.
And then when one or the other happens, "See, I was right."
Brad, You be one of them, too? :o)
That was a great call to 4300! Very impressive
Good analysis. Wave II will likely bottom at the 50dma at 3970
Thanks for the update. Just wish the chart was expandable for viewing..
So both bear and bullish scenarios have a pullback to roughly 4000-4100 early Sep followed by another leg up to 4400 late Sep into October, followed by a pullback to 4000-4100 again. So you see November as the decisive moment based on either rallying from 4000 or breaking lower below that level? While anything is possible, i would expect Sep and Oct to be much worse based on what is actually going on outside the charts (interest rates, QT, etc) vs your predicition of basically same SP level more or less between now vs early Nov
Although i agree multiple scenarios are possible, I wouldn’t be surprised if we go straight down from here to test the June low
”I never mention timing in my articles either…” You imply it, when you extend your charts into the future.
dude… how else am i going to annotate the charts? Backwards? What a fool.
The June low is in. We will retrace but as the market has always showed we are higher than years ago and we will be higher in years to come. Corrections should be nibbled on.
We are in a different time than we were from 2008 - 2022 and most bulls do not realise the party is over  (so you can no longer use trend graphs from 2008 - 2022 to guess the future as its a completely different global trading environment). There is no more cheap Fed cash, stable international trading environment (not with major tensions vs Russia and China), stimulus money being pumped in to keep stocks high or low global taxes (with a 15% global rate agreed upon). World economies now have massive debt levels and spiraling inflation levels (esp energy and food). Will the market rise eventually? Yes - but 95% I have spoken to are expecting a recession or major dip at a minimum over the next 6-9 months (so are the BoE and ECB). I could EASILY see markets back to pre-covid levels within the next 12 -18 months (so Nasdaq @ 9,500, S&P @ circa 3,000 and Dow @ 25,000) before gradually rebounding in the medium term.
We have reached a permanently high plateau he says. I think I heard that one before. 1929 anyone?
Thanks Doc!!!
U r welcome!
d!p?s
From most us analysts said this is junk and should go down to 1000 easy
Good luck. No way. Unless we get hit by a meteor or all die from a pandemic than we don't have to be worried about S&P levels.
 1,000 - NO....But I could definitely see it fall to precovid levels at >3,000 within the next 12 - 18 months now that QT has taken over and the stimulus taps / cheap debt has stopped artificially inflating revenues. Literally, every headwind is against the market and the only thing Bulls are clinging onto is blind hope and a lot of spare cash they need to store somewhere (hence why have the inflation problem to begin with - Fed printed far too much cheap cash / bought far too much for its balance sheet which it now has to sort).
All I short 1000 easy
Cannot get your charts to open up to be able to see/read them.
I can.
this has been a known issue with the website for most contributors. You have to downlsod the picture.
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