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S&P 500 Futures: How Low Can They Go Before A Sustained Bottom Is In?

By Dr. Arnout ter Schure Stock MarketsApr 26, 2022 02:42PM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/sp-500-futures-how-low-can-they-go-before-a-sustained-bottom-is-in-200622942
S&P 500 Futures: How Low Can They Go Before A Sustained Bottom Is In?
By Dr. Arnout ter Schure   |  Apr 26, 2022 02:42PM ET
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Over the last few weeks, see, for example, here and here, I have kept you abreast of how the current ongoing correction in the S&P 500 futures (ES) should unfold using the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP).

So far, the index has not disappointed. Namely, the anticipated multi-day bounce to 4500-4570 came and went as the index topped at 4509 on April 21st. Now the S&P 500 futures is trading at the low 4200s.

Thus, the forecasted “subsequent decline to ideally 4115+/-25…” is underway (see Figure 1 below) and the EWP has been an accurate and reliable tool to forecast the futures market’s next moves.

So, the question is, what’s next?

Figure 1. ES hourly candlestick chart with detailed EWP count and several technical indicators

S&P 500 Futures 1-Hour Chart
S&P 500 Futures 1-Hour Chart

Correction Is Unfolding As It Should

One always must anticipate, monitor, and adjust. For now, the index is progressing as anticipated. I see, therefore, no reason to change the next part of my forecast:

Once that target zone [4115+/-25] is reached, the index should bounce again to 4315+/-25 (4), followed by a final decrease to 4050+/-25 (green wave-5, of red wave-c, of black wave-4).

Other than a minor tweak in that wave (c/3) could stall at the 123.60% extension (4170+/-5), and wave-4 could bounce back to as high as the 61.80% level (4340+/-5).

Bottom Line

The EWP continues to run supreme because last week, the ES bottomed right where I thought it would, 4375 vs. 4370, and staged the anticipated rally right to where I thought it would; SPX4500+/-25 vs. 4509.

The expected subsequent decline to ideally 4115+/-25 (green c/3) is now underway, but it could stall at 4170+/-5. I, therefore, continue to expect a bounce soon to ideally 4235-4295, but possibly as high as 4340 before the last leg lower of this significant correction that started January 4th completes at ideally 3960-4025.

S&P 500 Futures: How Low Can They Go Before A Sustained Bottom Is In?
 

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S&P 500 Futures: How Low Can They Go Before A Sustained Bottom Is In?

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Comments (16)
Kool Aid
Kool Aid Apr 28, 2022 2:30PM ET
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Thanks Doc!
Chris Sundo
Chris Sundo Apr 28, 2022 6:40AM ET
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I wonder why nobody is talking about the minerals and materials going to the dogs when not even less than a month ago there were investor conferences on the sector. Iron ore, too. Any comments?
Gus McCrae
Gus McCrae Apr 28, 2022 6:40AM ET
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inflation is peaking
ivan preg
ivan preg Apr 27, 2022 1:17AM ET
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Your ewp seems very powerful. You've been spot on. Some small offshoot is understandable. It's the first time I appreciate ewp from a guru like you. Kudos
Mark Treutelaar
Mark Treutelaar Apr 26, 2022 11:09PM ET
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If you have a weiner spit it out. It ain't yours
Murali Krishna
Murali Krishna Apr 26, 2022 8:41PM ET
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On or about March 30 22 when Arnout was telling everyone how SP 500 was heading to 4750++, I used my EWP analysis telling that top was made at 4600+ and SP 500 was heading to 4250 or lower. My EWP analysis gives better signals. Remember the analysis is my own cockamamie analysis but I call it EWP Fibonacci analysis
Murali Krishna
Murali Krishna Apr 26, 2022 8:37PM ET
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Because nobody will believe me if I say, based on my analysis, I will say, based on my Elliot Wave Principle analysis, SP 500 will go somewhere today. Remember analysis is my own cockamamie analysis, but I say based on Elliot Wave Principle analysis or Fibonacci or someone else analysis, Someone may believe me
Murali Krishna
Murali Krishna Apr 26, 2022 8:36PM ET
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Where is Dr. Arnout? He was misleading all on or about March 30, 22 with his cockamamie analysis but called EWP analysis that SP 500 was heading for new High. I had to chase him away. He has since been missing. Where is he
Michael Ringenberg
Michael Ringenberg Apr 26, 2022 7:04PM ET
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Really?  A couple of witchbrew trend lines over a couple of weeks?   Unknown territory of U.S. debt, artificially low interest rates and QE tightening, saddled with the prospect of student loan dismissal. Oh, and there is that whole WWIII geopolitical Russia/China wildcard.  This is going to get real over the next 2 years.
Rick Nisky
Rick Nisky Apr 26, 2022 6:46PM ET
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Thank you very much for sharing your highly skilled and ongoing analysis. Truly commendable work.
Joe Haney
Joe Haney Apr 26, 2022 6:23PM ET
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Thanks!  It must be frustrating that many readers fail to fully comprehend your analysis.  I think they just skim through it, picking out things to believe, to ignore, or  to criticize.   EWP is very good at predicting tops and bottoms.  Timing is more unpredictable.  And, yes, things change.  Thanks again for your analysis
 
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