The price of silver is as close as it can be to a major breakout point. Silver could start a tactical bull market once it goes higher from here, and remains above $19 for three consecutive weeks.
However, readers should not confuse a major breakout with a secular breakout. A major breakout indicates that a tactical bull market is starting. A secular breakout suggests a multi-year bull market is starting. That is a big difference.
The chart below shows the weekly chart over five years. The breakout point is indicated with the red circle.
Note that a secular bull market can only be spotted on a +10-year chart.
The price of silver successfully tested support in January, only to find strong resistance at $19 in March. That is when we became bearish and saw silver going back to $15 or lower. Slightly later, we observed that March 2017 would be a decisive month for the price of silver. Indeed, silver went higher in March and April, a more bullish development than we expected.
Interestingly, silver is looking stronger than gold at this point.
The secular breakout will occur between $20 and $22. Silver still has some resistance to overcome, but, admittedly, the grey metal looks quite constructive at this point.
Silver bulls want to see a strong breakout at $19 with at least three consecutive weeks of trading above $19. After that, it will probably move quickly to the $21 area where it will find the ultimate resistance.
Note that seasonality is not in favor of gold and silver. May and June are typically the weakest months of the year for precious metals. We still cannot believe that silver will jump right into a major secular bull market in the coming months, but the odds of a new bull market in 2018 are definitely increasingly strongly. We will follow silver very closely this year.
