The Power of Incremental Steps
Patience and consistency are not only essential in our personal lives but also the fundamentals of successful investing. From a daily perspective, the silver market does look relatively stiff and slow, as little to no movement is recorded from one day to another. However, looking at it from farther away, we can see that the price has gradually declined since the beginning of February and is now pretty close to its supporting line at $24.04.
This was also our primary expectation, but we will come back to that later. Although the price development is in accordance with our expectations. Nonetheless, we need to acknowledge that there is a substantial lack of energy in this market. Except for the short breakout, which was caused by a buying-offensive of the internet-community, the precious metal has been moving rather slowly ever since the new year started.
The advantage of such sleepy behavior is that sudden moves in both directions are less likely than in other markets. It does not mean that it will always be like that. It remains to be seen how long silver will behave like this.
But let us return to our primary scenario on the silver market. In the next step, we expect that the price falls below $24.04. In fact, there is still some space below that line until we see a turnaround. This should happen somewhere around $22.23, and the price should recover a little bit. But as you already guessed from the wording, this movement, we believe, will only be short-lived and not a sustainable upward trend.
In the longer run, we expect the price to drop further. Looking at the long-term chart, we see that we have indicated a target zone between $18.620 and $13.705, which is marked in blue. This means that we expect the silver price to dive into that area before discussing any sustainable upward trends for this metal.
Therefore, the price must break below $24.04. Until then, we will still need to count on an alternative course of action. Here, a breakout above $30.35 is setting in and currently has a probability of 35%.
To summarize, the central point of both the primary and secondary scenarios is $24.04. Below that, the primary scenario will prevail. Above it, the second scenario is still alive.