Data Remains Largely Neutral
The indexes closed mixed Wednesday with positive internals on the NYSE while those on the NASDAQ were mixed. Volumes increased on both exchanges from the prior session. Two indexes closed marginally above resistance, leaving all of the short term trends intact. The data remains largely neutral. We see no change on the charts or data screen at this time that would alter our near term “neutral/positive” outlook for the major equity indexes over the near term.
- The indexes closed mixed yesterday with the COMPQX (page 3) and NDX (page 3) declining as the rest posted gains. NYSE internals were positive while the NASDAQ saw a positive advance/decline but negative up/down volume. Overall volumes increased from the prior session on both exchanges. The SPX (page 2) and DJI (page 2) managed to close marginally above resistance but lacked intensity that would otherwise have a more bullish overtone. So the near term trends remain evenly split with the SPX, DJI, COMPQX and NDX in short term uptrends with the rest in neutral sideways patterns. The cumulative advance/decline lines for the All Exchange, NYSE and NASDAQ remain neutral and above their 50 DMAs.
- The data remains largely neutral as are all of the McClellan OB/OS Oscillators (All Exchange:+12.86/-6.25 NYSE:+29.35/-8.357 NASDAQ:-1.13/-5.03). The Equity Put/Call Ratio (0.56), OEX P/C (1.12)and OpenInsider Buy/Sell Ratio (42.1) are neutral as well. The Total Put/Call Ratio (contrary indicator) is a mildly bullish 0.85 Valuation finds consensus forward 12 month earnings estimates for the SPX of $167.52 leaving the forward 12-month p/e for the SPX at 16.8 versus the “rule of 20” implied fair value of a 17.1 multiple and a 5.95% earnings yield.
- In conclusion, given the current state of the charts and data, we are maintaining our near term “neutral/positive” outlook for the major equity indexes.
- SPX: 2,790/2,839
- DJI: 24,761/25,377
- NASDAQ: 7,691/NA
- NDX: 7,199/NA
- DJT: 10,436/10,771
- MID: 1,968/2,008
- Russell: 1,654/1,712
- VALUA: 6,365/6,487
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