Shopify Inc. (NYSE:SHOP) is a Canada-based global commerce company. The company offers an e-commerce platform to small and medium-size businesses. The subscription solutions segment allows Shopify merchants to conduct e-commerce on a variety of platforms, including the company’s website, physical stores, pop-up stores, kiosks, social networks (Facebook (NASDAQ:META)), and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN). The merchant solutions segment offers add-on products for the platform that facilitates e-commerce and includes Shopify Payments, Shopify Shipping, and Shopify Capital.
SHOP Q3 2024 reports earnings at 7:00 AM Tuesday, Nov 12, 2024
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SHOP Earnings Statistics since Q2 2016 |
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EPS |
1W % move post earnings |
2W % move post earnings |
1M % move post earnings |
|
BEATS 24 |
5.28% |
0.66% |
8.15% |
|
MISSES 4 |
-9.85% |
-8.71% |
-10.29% |
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Analyst Ratings |
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SOURCE |
BUY |
HOLD |
SELL |
|
Refinitiv |
30 |
20 |
1 |
|
TipRanks |
11 |
5 |
1 |
Price Performance:
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Price Performance [Close Price 87.12 as of Nov 08, 2024] |
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|
52-Week Range |
138.80 - 271.00 |
Volume |
7,439,000 |
|
1W |
10.21% |
Average volume |
4,786,645 |
|
1M |
5.43% |
|
|
|
3M |
27.82% |
|
|
|
6M |
38.90% |
|
|
|
YTD |
13.97% |
|
|
|
1Y |
39.35% |
|
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Fundamentals:
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Fundamentals |
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Market Capitalization, $K |
112,418,520 |
Price/Sales |
15.64 |
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Shares Outstanding, K |
1,290,387 |
Price/Cash Flow |
277.72 |
|
Annual Sales, $ |
7060 M |
Price/Book |
12.02 |
|
Annual Income, $ |
132000 k |
Price/Earnings ttm (Trailing 12-month) |
117 |
|
EBIT $ |
738 M |
Earnings Per Share ttm |
0.73 |
|
EBITDA $ |
808 M |
Most Recent Earnings |
$0.26 on 08/07/24 |
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60-Month Beta |
2.36 |
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Option Statistics:
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Option Statistics as Nov 08, 2024, close |
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|
Expiration Date |
DTE |
Put Vol |
Call Vol |
Total (EPA:TTEF) Vol |
Put/Cal Vol |
Put OI |
Call OI |
Total OI |
Put/CallOI |
Implied Volatility |
Expected Move |
|
11/15/2024 |
6 |
11662 |
21334 |
32996 |
0.5466 |
21183 |
32401 |
53584 |
0.6538 |
129.78% |
±11.654 |
|
11/22/2024 |
13 |
1328 |
2447 |
3775 |
0.5427 |
3856 |
4030 |
7886 |
0.9568 |
89.61% |
±12.286 |
|
11/29/2024 |
20 |
403 |
517 |
920 |
0.7795 |
1282 |
2283 |
3565 |
0.5615 |
74.75% |
±12.743 |
|
12/6/2024 |
27 |
212 |
614 |
826 |
0.3453 |
713 |
1694 |
2407 |
0.4209 |
64.48% |
±13.092 |
|
12/13/2024 |
34 |
161 |
183 |
344 |
0.8798 |
111 |
191 |
302 |
0.5812 |
61.10% |
±13.385 |
|
12/20/2024 |
41 |
1829 |
2879 |
4708 |
0.6353 |
29960 |
32297 |
62257 |
0.9276 |
57.72% |
±14.391 |
|
12/27/2024 |
48 |
71 |
153 |
224 |
0.4641 |
18 |
35 |
53 |
0.5143 |
54.90% |
±13.611 |
Key Highlights:
- PayPal (NASDAQ:PYPL) Partners on September 09, 2024, with Shopify to Power a Portion of Shopify Payments in the United States.
- Shopify welcomes new CTO Mikhail Parakhin on Aug 28, 2024
- YouTube announces expanded partnership with Shopify on July 19, 2024.
- Shopify Partners with Roblox on September 06, 2024.
- In Q3 global Shopify app downloads were up 30% Y/Y.
Technical Analysis Perspective:
- SHOP is trading below 91/92 handle, which is July 2020 to Nov 2020 support now acting as a key obstacle ahead of the earnings Nov 12, 2024, before market.
- Technically speaking any previous strong support zone function as a key barrier in the future, which is the case for Shopify around 91/92 level.
- A 2 year and 8 months old Cup & Handle formation is in the making on monthly chart since January 2022. The cup is completed in February 2024 at 91.57. Since Feb, the handle of the pattern is in the making and prices trading hovering between 91.57 to 48.56.
- Cup & Handle formation are bullish patterns, suggesting a phase of consolidation before another run higher.
- A strong breakout of 91/92 pre or post earnings will eye 105 to 111 in the short term, while the medium to long term target is 150/152 with more room to 170/172.
- A sustained rejection of 91/92 obstacle today or post earning would negate the upside outlook.
- SHOP 10 years seasonality suggests that November is a positive month historically.
Conclusion:
To break a technical pattern, there is a need for a catalyst which is the earnings on November 12. Improving fundamentals and sentiment indicators are positive; suggesting that SHOP is likely to break 91/92 pre or post earnings. A sustained break above would target 105 to 111 in the short term. A failure to break would negate the pattern and outlook.
As the English proverb says, “There's many a slip 'twixt the cup and the lip.” These patterns are high probability setups with about 83% success rate, however, there is a 17% possibility of failure, the key is to manage risk using stoploss and expectation using targets/goals.