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SGB And DGB Auctions, Norwegian And Swedish Manufacturing Data, Danish

Published 04/03/2017, 03:21 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM

In Sweden it is time for PMI (tomorrow at 08:30 CEST), which receives a great deal of financial market attention. Then, on Wednesday (at 09:30 CEST), Statistics Sweden (SCB) is due to publish February industrial data, which is one of our favourite but, alas, volatile indicators. We have no strong view on this particular number, but another decent outcome for production would rhyme well with our estimates for GDP Q1 17.

The Swedish National Debt Office is due to release the March budget outcome. The Debt Office will also tap in the 10Y bond May '28. It will be the first ordinary tap in the bond since it was introduced in January. Note that the Debt Office has conducted four switches for a total of SEK20bn, buying the SGB May '25 and the SGB Nov '26. The amount is a modest SEK 2.5bn.

Finally, we discuss the outlook for Swedish inflation and monetary policy in light of the low German/Eurozone inflation prints and the latest softer ECB rhetoric.

In Norway , the week brings several indicators, which will reveal whether industrial activity has recovered further. The PMI indicator climbed to 52.6 in February, so we expect industrial production to gain 0.3% m/m in February, which would confirm that the negative trend in manufacturing since 2014 is at an end. It would also mean that industrial production made a solid contribution to GDP in Q1 and confirm that growth is approaching the trend rate. PMI data for March is due to be released tomorrow.

In Denmark , the coming week brings currency reserve data on Tuesday. The DKK was riding high against the EUR at the beginning of March, so the market will keep a close eye on whether the central bank intervened during the month. In the latter part of March the picture reversed and EUR/DKK edged higher. We argue that the downward pressure on EUR/DKK will resume later in Q2.

The Danish Debt Office will on Wednesday tap in the DGB 3.0% 2017 and the DGB 0.5% 2027 bonds.

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