The dollar rose for a fourth straight day on Friday, benefiting from turbulence caused by an escalating US-China trade conflict, as investors prepared for a US jobs report due later in the day.
Nonfarm payrolls probably rose by 190k jobs last month after increasing 213k in June. The projected slowdown reflects our view that labor supply shortages (in particular for skilled workers) makes it increasingly hard for companies to find the right workers for job openings. Job gains of around 180k are more than enough to put further downward pressure on the jobless rate, which we expect to ease back to 3.9%, after rising to 4.0% in June. Average hourly earnings likely rose 0.3% mom, leaving the yoy rate at an unchanged 2.7%.
This is how MyFXspot.com trades now:
EUR/USD
Trading strategy: Sell
Open: 1.1645
Target: -
Stop-loss: 1.1715
Recommended size: 2.86 mini lots per $10,000 in your account
Short analysis: EUR/USD broken below the major 1.1575 Fibonacci level, a 76.4% retrace of the 1.1508 to 1.1750 (June to July) rise, a daily close below which would lead to a sharp fall. Thursday registered the biggest one-day fall since July 26, reinforcing the near-term bearish bias. We are looking to get short on recovery attempts to the daily cloud base, now at 1.1648.
GBP/USD
Trading strategy: Sell
Open: 1.3105
Target: -
Stop-loss: 1.3190
Recommended size: 2.35 mini lots per $10,000 in your account
Short analysis: GBP/USD'S chance of a near-term recovery is diminishing as the underlying downtrend resumes. The market outlook remains fragile after Thursday's 106 pip one-day fall, the biggest since July 17, with fourteen-day momentum still negative. The overall scope is for losses to a key Fibo level at 1.2934, a 50% retrace of the 1.1491 to 1.4377 rise.
USD/JPY
Trading strategy: Await signal
Open: -
Target: -
Stop-loss: -
Recommended size: -
Short analysis: USD/JPY bias remains on the downside, after the recent failure ahead of the 112.19 Fibonacci level, a 61.8% retrace of the 113.18 to 110.58 fall. The market is becoming a fade on rallies. Scope is growing for losses back below the tenkan line, which is currently at 111.37, a daily close below which will weaken the underlying market structure further.
USD/CAD
Trading strategy: Short
Open: 1.3050
Target: 1.2850
Stop-loss: 1.3150
Recommended size: 1.96 mini lots per $10,000 in your account
Short analysis: USD/CAD once again probes Support below 1.3000, to session low 1.2996, after Wednesday's low 1.2975. More firm support at 1.2962/1.2957 the 100-day MA and 50% Fibo of 1.2528-1.3386 April/June rise. Bears remain in control below the falling 10-day MA, now at 1.3071.
AUD/USD
Trading strategy: Long
Open: 0.7425
Target: 0.7585
Stop-loss: 0.7345
Recommended size: 1.88 mini lots per $10,000 in your account
Short analysis: Bear sentiment is inching higher as the pair slips back below the 10 & 21-day MAs and RSIs deepen their bear bias.
EUR/GBP
Trading strategy: Await signal
Open: -
Target: -
Stop-loss: -
Recommended size: -
Short analysis: EUR/GBP bias remains on the downside, as potential (lower) highs have been left at 0.8936 and 0.8925. Bears need to register a daily close below the 30-DMA at 0.8868 and the 0.8859 Fibo, a 38.2% retrace of 0.8698 to 0.8958 (May 29 to July 20) rise, in order to weaken the market structure. Caution is advised, however, as fourteen-day momentum remains positive.
Trading ideas by MyFXspot.com