Emini all time high breakout is testing 2375 measured move target.
Pre-Open Market Analysis
The Emini has rallied strongly for 5 days. Furthermore, it is almost to the 2340 measured move target. Because the momentum up is strong, bulls will buy the 1st pullback. Therefore the bears will probably need at least a micro double top before they can begin a pullback that might last more than a few days.
Since this breakout has been so strong, the odds of a pullback to the August high before hitting the 2340 and 2375 targets is now less. Because the Emini is only 5 points below the lower target, it will probably get there this week. But, the momentum might not be enough to reach the 2375 target without a pullback first.
Overnight Emini
The Emini is down 5 points in the Globex session. After yesterday’s buy climax and 5-day rally, the odds are that today will not be a strong bull trend day. Yet, there is usually some follow-through buying in the 1st 2 hours after a strong bull day. But, the odds also favor at least 2 hours of sideways to down trading that begins by the end of the 2nd hour.
While it is possible for today to be a strong bear trend day, that would be unlikely. When bulls are so eager that they buy every small pullback for 5 days, they will probably buy any selloff before it falls too far. Hence, the best the bear can probably get is about 10 bars down on the 60-minute chart before the bulls come back. Therefore, the 1st big pullback will probably only last a day and a half or so.
Since the Emini is near the 2340 and 2375 measured move targets, it will probably pull back from this area. Because the rally has been so strong, any pullback will probably need many sideways days first. This is because traders will continue to buy until the bears begin to create selling pressure. They will therefore need many days to neutralize this strong rally.