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Risk Relief To Weigh On Implied Vol, But Eventful December Will Keep The Front-End

Published 12/03/2018, 08:27 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM

0-2W EUR/NOK and USD/NOK tenors have bounced higher over the last week driven by higher realised volatility after NOK recovery. Event risk priced on Norges Bank's 13 December meeting is more or less unchanged from last week - and fair in our view.

For EUR/SEK, implied vol at the 0-3W tenors remains underpinned by a relatively high event risk priced for the December CPI print and the Riksbank meeting. Meanwhile, the political situation remains unresolved and is a potential upside risk to EUR/SEK impl. vol. and spot.

Overall, improvement in global risk appetite and oil price stabilisation indicate downside pressure to implied vol beyond year end.

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