EU and US futures are down after rallying in the first days of the week: Nasdaq 100 futures - 0.70%, S&P 500 futures - 0.70%, DAX - 0.70%, FTSE MIB + 1.50%, IBEX 35 - 1.50%.
The violent rebound of the first session of the fourth quarter was triggered by the arrival of another sign of the slowdown in the US economy, the drop in the ISM manufacturing index prompted the market to price a change in monetary policy for the coming months of the Federal Reserve.
This, coupled with the liquidation of bearish positions and the fact that other central banks may also follow in the Fed's footsteps, has pushed the market to record highs.
An indication also came from the Reserve Bank of Australia, with the interest rate being raised by only 0.25% against the forecast of 0.50%.
Investors have reached what could be considered the peak of pessimism on equities, while other asset classes attract liquidity.
The Goldman Sachs Sentiment Indicator has been negative for the 31st straight week and strategists usually argue at this point there has always been a rebound in the markets.
With central banks seen more dovish - the BoE in particular has returned to buying bond on the markets - the indices have room for a major rebound. Soon we will see 22,000 points for the FTSE MIB, 13,000 for the DAX, 3900 for the S&P 500.
Brent oil and WTI are up 4%. Some delegates from OPEC+ member countries spoke to reporters ahead of Wednesday's meeting in Vienna. The desire to cut production by one million barrels a day is taking shape inside the cartel.
It is certainly excellent news for oil: for the law of supply and demand, a cut in supply that causes a shortage of oil is good for prices. If we are see a cut of one million barrels a day, the price will return to $100 again, with a cut of 500,000 prices can reach a top of $85.
Banca Generali (BIT:BGN): According to rumors from Bloomberg, Generali is considering an operation with the US asset manager Guggenheim. According to rumors, Guggenheim could finance a possible acquisition through the sale of BGN to Mediobanca (OTC:MDIBY).
The transaction makes sense. Mediobanca has repeatedly expressed its will to grow in the insurance sector and asset management, a missing piece that Banca Generali could finally gather. According to my model, the stock is worth 24, but a possible sale at a premium could end at a maximum of 36 Eur, bringing prices to these levels. The stock is to be traded only from a speculative point of view.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) delivered 343,830 cars in the third quarter, fifteen thousand less than the consensus expected. The company explained that the figure was penalized by logistical problems. According to my model, the stock is worth $ 170, we are facing extremely high prices in terms of multiples, so I do not recommend long-term operations on the stock.