Predicting, Timing And Narrating Historical Moves

www.investing.com/analysis/predicting-timing-and-narrating-historical-moves-200632282

By Ashraf Laidi | Nov 12, 2022 11:24PM ET

Saved. See Saved Items.

This article has already been saved in your Saved Items

+0.02%

Add to/Remove from Watchlist

There are a dozen of several solid "perfect" explanations for the protracted US Dollar decline and the explosive push up in metals and indices. Some have pointed to the rounded top in DXY, others to the lower highs in bond yields, while others assert the importance of mid-term elections seasonals and how November is the best time for equities in the second presidential cycle. How about our repeated assertions of higher lows in silver, copper and palladium acted as a leading signal for a looming rally in gold. All of that works. Our recent video showed how the 10-year/3-month was accurate in timing the end of Fed hikes helped. It does not matter whether the Fed will hike again in December. More importantly, is the lower magnitude of the upcoming rate hike, whose impact on the Yield Spread is similar to a no-hike. See the historicals and the timing of the video here again.

Whatsapp-USDCAD-Nov-11-2022

The chart below (XME/XLE vs XAU/USD) was posted on November 8, moments before gold "took off". The small red horizontal line (Dec 2016) was followed by gold rallying on the 8th week (8th yellow candle), coinciding lift-off in the RSI of the XME/XLE. The same development emerged this week. If that's too obscure of an indicator, that is OK. But there was a reason why I chose to time the sharing of the chart with our WBG members. As for the above USD/CAD chart, it is self explanatory. Now we wait for Fed members to come this week to warn on how more should be done to bring down inflation. But will they walk such talk in December?

XME/XLE vs XAU/USD Weekly Chart

EUR/USD Bears Need a Lower High for Trend Reversal By Al Brooks - Feb 08, 2023

The EUR/USD is beginning to stall below the moving average after three consecutive bull trend bars. The odds are that the small pullback bull trend is converting into a trading...

GBP/AUD Back to the Top By Scott Barkley - Feb 08, 2023

Bullish: GBP/AUD currently at 1.7370 in a range and headed north after a hard bounce. We are looking for a continuation to the ATR target at 1.7476 area with a further target the...

GBP/USD Punches Past 1.21, Bailey Up Next By Kenny Fisher - Feb 08, 2023

The British pound is in positive territory on Wednesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2107, up 0.47%. The pound is recovering from a nasty slide of almost 400...

Add a Comment

We encourage you to use comments to engage with other users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind:

Enrich the conversation, don’t trash it.
Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed.
Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically. Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user. Racism, sexism and other forms of discrimination will not be tolerated.
Use standard writing style. Include punctuation and upper and lower cases. Comments that are written in all caps and contain excessive use of symbols will be removed.
NOTE: Spam and/or promotional messages and comments containing links will be removed. Phone numbers, email addresses, links to personal or business websites, Skype/Telegram/WhatsApp etc. addresses (including links to groups) will also be removed; self-promotional material or business-related solicitations or PR (ie, contact me for signals/advice etc.), and/or any other comment that contains personal contact specifcs or advertising will be removed as well. In addition, any of the above-mentioned violations may result in suspension of your account.
Doxxing. We do not allow any sharing of private or personal contact or other information about any individual or organization. This will result in immediate suspension of the commentor and his or her account.
Don’t monopolize the conversation. We appreciate passion and conviction, but we also strongly believe in giving everyone a chance to air their point of view. Therefore, in addition to civil interaction, we expect commenters to offer their opinions succinctly and thoughtfully, but not so repeatedly that others are annoyed or offended. If we receive complaints about individuals who take over a thread or forum, we reserve the right to ban them from the site, without recourse.
Only English comments will be allowed.
Any comment you publish, together with your investing.com profile, will be public on investing.com and may be indexed and available through third party search engines, such as Google.

Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at Investing.com’s discretion.

I have read Investing.com's comments guidelines and agree to the terms described.

I Agree

Write your thoughts here

Are you sure you want to delete this chart?

Delete Cancel

Post

Post also to:

Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?

Replace Cancel

1000

Comment Guidelines

Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.

Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.

Thanks for your comment. Please note that all comments are pending until approved by our moderators. It may therefore take some time before it appears on our website.

<div id="comment">
				<div class="comment js-comment" data-comment-id="{commentID}" id="comment-{commentID}" data-user-id="">
    <div class="mainComment js-content">
       <div class="commentInnerWrapper">
        <a href="{userLink}" class="js-user-link"><img src="{userImage}" width="33" height="33" alt="{usernameAlt}" class="img" onerror="this.src='https://i-invdn-com.investing.com/defaultUserMaleTmp.png';"></a><div class="commentBody">
                					<span class="commentUsername">
                    	<a href="{userLink}" class="js-user-link js-user-name">{username}</a>
					</span>
                                <span class="js-date" comment-date="{dateFormat}" comment-date-formatted="{dateFormatted}" title="{dateTitle}">Just Now</span>
                <div class="commentDropDown js-commentDropDownWrapper " data-user-id="" data-cid="{commentID}">
	<a href="javascript:void(0);" class="threeDotsIconSmall js-thinDropdownArrow"></a>
	<div class="tooltipPopup commentActionsPop noHeader js-commentDropDownOptions displayNone">
		<div class="addRow js-option share">
			<a href="javascript:void(0);" class="js-commentSharePopup" data-cid="{commentID}" data-curl="{commentLink}"><span class="smallShareIcon middle"></span>Share</a>
		</div>

<div class="js-option addRow follow">
            <div class="js-follow-post-button" data-reg_ep="follow comment">
                <span class="alertfollowIcon middle"></span>Follow this post            </div>
            <div class="js-unfollow-post-button displayNoneImp">
                <span class="alertUnfollowIcon middle"></span>Unfollow this post            </div>
        </div>

<div class="addRow js-option save"  data-reg_ep="save comment">
		<a href="javascript:void(0);" class="js-save-item-btn" data-item-type="comments" data-item-id="{commentID}">
			<i class="saveItemBigIcon middle"></i>
			Save		</a>
	</div>
	<div class="addRow saveItemsConfirmation noHover displayNone js-saveItemResult">
		
<div class="content js-saveItemSuccess displayNone">
	<span class="mediumGreenSuccessIcon"></span><span>Saved. See <a href="/members-admin/saved-items" target="_blank">Saved Items</a>.</span>
	<a href="javascript:void(0);" class="bugCloseIcon js-close"></a>
</div>
<div class="content js-saveItemAlreadySaved saveItemAlreadySaved displayNoneImp">
	<span>This comment has already been saved in your <a href="/members-admin/saved-items" target="_blank">Saved Items</a></span>
	<a href="javascript:void(0);" class="bugCloseIcon js-close"></a>
</div>
	</div>

<div class="addRow shareButtons js-sharePopup displayNone">
			<div class="js-shareComment"><span class="js-shareCommentSpan"></span></div>
		</div>
	</div>
</div>
                 <div class="commentAuthor js-comment-by-author"><span class="commentAuthorIcon"></span>Author's response</div>             </div>
		<div id="commentText-{commentID}" class="js-text-wrapper commentText withImage">
							<div id="commentBigChart{commentID}" class="commentBigChart js-comment-chart" onclick="openViewChartPopup('{commentID}')">
					<img src="https://d1-invdn-com.investing.com/comments_images/{commentImage}" alt="{commentAlt}">
					<i class="newMagnifyChartIcon"></i>
				</div>
						<span class="js-text">{commentContent}</span>
			<div class="clear"></div>
							<div class="commentButtons js-not-master-user">
					<a href="javascript:void(0)" class="reply js-reply-btn" data-real-parent-id="{commentID}" data-to-user-name="{username}" data-to-user-id="">Reply</a>
					<div class="inlineblock likeDislikeBox js-like-dislike-box" data-item-id="{commentID}">
	<input class="js-like-checkbox" type="checkbox" name="option" value="Yes" id="like_{commentID}">
	<label for="like_{commentID}" class="like" title="I agree"></label>
	<span class="numOfLikes js-like-count lighterGrayFont">0</span>
	<input class="js-dislike-checkbox" type="checkbox" name="option" value="No" id="dislike_{commentID}">
	<label for="dislike_{commentID}" class="dislike" title="I disagree"></label>
	<span class="numOfDislikes js-dislike-count lighterGrayFont">0</span>
</div>

<div class="reportComment js-flag float_lang_base_2">
                            <a href="javascript:void(0);" id="commentFlag_{commentID}">
                                <span class="reportCommentIcon middle"></span><span class="inlineblock middle">Report</span>
                            </a>
                        </div>
                    				</div>
					</div>
	   </div>
	</div>
	</div>			</div>
			<div id="reply">
				
    <div class="commentReply js-comment js-comment-reply" data-comment-id="{commentID}" id="comment-{commentID}" data-user-id="">
		<div class="commentInnerWrapper"><a href="{userLink}" class="js-user-link"><img src="{userImage}" width="33" height="33" alt="{usernameAlt}" class="img" onerror="this.src='https://i-invdn-com.investing.com/defaultUserMaleTmp.png';"></a><div class="commentBody js-content">
            				<span class="commentUsername">
					<a href="{userLink}" class="commentUsername js-user-link js-user-name" onMouseOver="">{username}</a>
				</span>
                        <span class="js-date" comment-date="{dateFormat}" comment-date-formatted="{dateFormatted}" title="{dateTitle}">Just Now</span>
			 <div class="commentAuthor js-comment-by-author"><span class="commentAuthorIcon"></span>Author's response</div> 			<div class="commentDropDown js-commentDropDownWrapper " data-user-id="" data-cid="{commentID}">
	<a href="javascript:void(0);" class="threeDotsIconSmall js-thinDropdownArrow"></a>
	<div class="tooltipPopup commentActionsPop noHeader js-commentDropDownOptions displayNone">
		<div class="addRow js-option share">
			<a href="javascript:void(0);" class="js-commentSharePopup" data-cid="{commentID}" data-curl="{commentLink}"><span class="smallShareIcon middle"></span>Share</a>
		</div>

</div>
		<div id="commentText-{commentID}" class="js-text-wrapper commentText withImage">
							<div id="commentBigChart{commentID}" class="replyBigChart displayNone js-comment-chart">
					<img src="https://d1-invdn-com.investing.com/comments_images/{commentImage}" alt="{commentAlt}">
					<i class="newMagnifyChartIcon"></i>
				</div>
				<span id="commentSmallChart{commentID}" class="commentSmallChart pointer js-comment-chart" onclick="openViewChartPopup('{commentID}')">
                    <img src="https://d1-invdn-com.investing.com/comments_images/{commentImageSmall}" width="116" height="52" alt="{commentAlt}">
                    <span class="chartMagnifyOverlay displayNone"></span>
                    <span class="searchGlassIcon chartMagnify displayNone"></span>
                </span>
						<span class="js-text">{commentContent}</span>
			<div class="clear"></div>
							<div class="commentButtons js-not-master-user">
					<a href="javascript:void(0)" class="reply js-reply-btn" data-real-parent-id="{commentID}" data-to-user-name="{username}" data-to-user-id="">Reply</a>
					<div class="inlineblock likeDislikeBox js-like-dislike-box" data-item-id="{commentID}">
	<input class="js-like-checkbox" type="checkbox" name="option" value="Yes" id="like_{commentID}">
	<label for="like_{commentID}" class="like" title="I agree"></label>
	<span class="numOfLikes js-like-count lighterGrayFont">0</span>
	<input class="js-dislike-checkbox" type="checkbox" name="option" value="No" id="dislike_{commentID}">
	<label for="dislike_{commentID}" class="dislike" title="I disagree"></label>
	<span class="numOfDislikes js-dislike-count lighterGrayFont">0</span>
</div>

Are you sure you want to delete this chart?

Delete Cancel

Post

Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?

Replace Cancel

1000

Comment Guidelines

Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.

Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.

I feel that this comment is:

Spam

Offensive

Thank You!

Your report has been sent to our moderators for review

Central Banks

Interest Rates

Next Meeting

FED

4.75%

Mar 22, 2023

ECB

3.00%

Mar 16, 2023

BOE

4.00%

Mar 23, 2023

SNB

1.00%

Mar 23, 2023

RBA

3.35%

Mar 07, 2023

BOC

4.50%

Mar 08, 2023

RBNZ

4.25%

Feb 22, 2023

BOJ

-0.10%

Mar 10, 2023

CBR

7.50%

Feb 10, 2023

RBI

6.50%

Feb 08, 2023

PBOC

3.65%

BCB

13.75%

Mar 22, 2023

US 30	33,954.0	-202.7	-0.59%
US 500	4,117.1	-46.9	-1.13%
Dow Jones	33,956.14	-200.55	-0.59%
S&P 500	4,117.36	-46.64	-1.12%
Nasdaq	11,906.74	-207.05	-1.71%
S&P 500 VIX	19.82	+1.16	+6.22%
Dollar Index	103.315	+0.017	+0.02%

Crude Oil WTI	77.39	+0.25	+0.32%
Brent Oil	83.83	+0.14	+0.17%
Natural Gas	2.455	-0.129	-4.99%
Gold	1,885.60	+0.80	+0.04%
Silver	22.300	+0.123	+0.55%
Copper	4.0232	-0.0573	-1.40%
US Soybeans	1,521.25	+6.25	+0.41%

U.S. 10Y	3.683	+0.009	+0.24%
U.S. 30Y	3.740	+0.034	+0.92%
U.S. 5Y	3.8304	-0.0140	-0.35%
U.S. 3M	4.7084	+0.0050	+0.11%
US 10Y T-Note	113.30	+0.06	+0.06%
Euro Bund	136.01	-0.04	-0.03%
10-2 Yield Spread	-78.92	+0.00	+0.00%

Apple	151.81	-2.84	-1.84%
Alphabet A	98.26	-9.38	-8.71%
Tesla	198.40	+1.59	+0.81%
Amazon.com	98.96	-3.15	-3.08%
Netflix	360.07	-2.88	-0.79%
Meta Platforms	184.00	-7.62	-3.98%
Bank of America	36.55	-0.21	-0.58%

Predicting, Timing And Narrating Historical Moves

Related Articles