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Predicting, Timing And Narrating Historical Moves

By Ashraf LaidiCurrenciesNov 12, 2022 11:24PM ET
Predicting, Timing And Narrating Historical Moves
By Ashraf Laidi   |  Nov 12, 2022 11:24PM ET
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There are a dozen of several solid "perfect" explanations for the protracted US Dollar decline and the explosive push up in metals and indices. Some have pointed to the rounded top in DXY, others to the lower highs in bond yields, while others assert the importance of mid-term elections seasonals and how November is the best time for equities in the second presidential cycle. How about our repeated assertions of higher lows in silver, copper and palladium acted as a leading signal for a looming rally in gold. All of that works. Our recent video showed how the 10-year/3-month was accurate in timing the end of Fed hikes helped. It does not matter whether the Fed will hike again in December. More importantly, is the lower magnitude of the upcoming rate hike, whose impact on the Yield Spread is similar to a no-hike. See the historicals and the timing of the video here again.


The chart below (XME/XLE vs XAU/USD) was posted on November 8, moments before gold "took off". The small red horizontal line (Dec 2016) was followed by gold rallying on the 8th week (8th yellow candle), coinciding lift-off in the RSI of the XME/XLE. The same development emerged this week. If that's too obscure of an indicator, that is OK. But there was a reason why I chose to time the sharing of the chart with our WBG members. As for the above USD/CAD chart, it is self explanatory. Now we wait for Fed members to come this week to warn on how more should be done to bring down inflation. But will they walk such talk in December?

XME/XLE vs XAU/USD Weekly Chart
XME/XLE vs XAU/USD Weekly Chart

Predicting, Timing And Narrating Historical Moves

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Predicting, Timing And Narrating Historical Moves

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