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Political Headwinds Await U.S. Markets

Published 05/10/2018, 12:13 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

As the economic benefits of last year's Tax Cuts and Jobs Act begin to filter into the US economy, the S&P 500 Index appears to be headed towards a retest of its all-time high of 2872.87 set in January of this year, as shown on the monthly chart below. This record high was accompanied by an all-time momentum (MOM) high, as well...hinting of further strength ahead at some point on this timeframe.

Watch for a break and hold above its next major resistance level (top of long-term uptrending channel) at 2750.

S&P 500 Monthly 1998-2018

However, political headwinds are lurking as Congresswoman Pelosi promises to roll back those tax cuts (like Pac-Man on steroids gobbling up "crumbs") if Democrats retake Congress in the November mid-term election. How much such rhetoric will affect the equity markets remains to be seen...perhaps not much until we get into the Fall, with both parties further defining their policies and priorities that they wish to implement going forward into the 2020 general election.

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