by Pinchas Cohen
What started with market sound and fury—FBI director James Comey's firing by U.S. President Donald Trump—fizzled into much ado about nothing but noise.
Yesterday, after the Dollar Index opened with a dramatic falling gap, erasing half of the previous session’s gains, it scaled right back up to its full measure, where it had been before the news broke.
At the same time, while S&P 500 futures slipped after the announcement, the S&P 500 achieved a higher close than the previous session, eyeing its last record close. The VIX remains near Monday's low, at 10.2, its lowest point in 24 years.
Asian markets advanced, some to new records, while European and US markets have slipped. South Korea's KOSPI reached a new record, getting over what some may have considered disappointment at the election of liberal Moon Jae-in as President. During the campaign he signaled he wants to improve relations with North Korea rather than work more closely with the US.
Japan's Nikkei 225 neared the 20,000 level. Even Chinese equities joined the party and erased earlier losses. Like Asian markets—but contrary to the direction of western markets—gold advanced. This was the first time in seven days the yellow metal saw an upmove. Oil continued to climb.
As of this morning, oil has been able to hold on to its biggest gains of the year, after US crude inventories declined by 5.25 million barrels, double what had been forecast. It was its biggest drop in stockpiles for the year and a fifth-weekly decline from record high inventory levels.
Today, oil futures added 0.5 percent to yesterday's whopping 3.2 percent gain, the most in five months. This furious bounce comes after the commodity plunged last week, dropping to its lowest levels since OPEC and NOPEC producers, including Russia, agreed to—and actually honored—unprecedented production cuts, back in November.
The only downside for oil bulls is rising US production, which climbed to its highest level since 2015. The US's Energy Information Administration estimates production will hit a new record in 2018. In an effort to blunt rising supply, and more significantly, keep prices from falling, OPEC and friends indicated they are prepared to keep the November deal in place into 2018.
The $4.6 trillion question – the current value of daily oil production – is whether non-US oil producers are willing and able to continue cutting, even as US companies profit at their expense.
Yesterday’s After-Market Earnings
Twenty-First Century Fox (NASDAQ:FOXA) Reported Q3 '17
- Ad sales fall absent February football finale
- Adj. EPS 0.54c to beat est. 48c, while rev. $7.56b missed est. $7.68b, but up 5% YoY due to more TV advertising, especially from Super Bowl LI.
- CEO James Murdoch expects pay-TV fees and cable ad growth this quarter
- Technical Analysis: Fell below uptrend line since September on May 3, but found support of 200dma, till yesterday, when it closed below. After earnings release, spiked to $29 in the after-market but came crashing down to $26.50. Twice tried but couldn’t overcome $28 and settled at $27.08. This represents an asset with considerable downward pressure.
Whole Foods Market Inc (NASDAQ:WFM) Reported Q1 '17
- Met expectations with EPS 37c on $3.74b rev.
- Same-store sales beat expectations, falling only 2.8 percent
- Company appoints five new board members and CFO
- Shares rise 3.5 percent to $37.51 but settle at $37.26
- Technical Analysis: After its decline from its record high of $65 and a crossing below of its uptrend line since post financial crisis, it had been unable to get back over the $35 level until April 20 when it reached a high of $37.33, its highest since July 2015. Since then it has been ranging in the $36-$37 level. Yesterday, it closed at $36.25, its lowest close since the start of the month. The price is now more likely to retest the $37 level.
Today’s Pre-Market Earnings
Macy’s (NYSE:M) Q1 '17
- Consensus has a same-store sales decline of 3.2 percent
- Real estate monetization is the core of 2017. At the beginning of the year, it announced it would close 68 stores by now, part of a previous announcement of the closing of 100 stores. It has already monetized $673 million in real estate and is now looking at its Herald Square flagship in Manhattan.
- Latest earnings preview of Retail-Wholesale sector expects a 2.2 percent total earnings decline, even as earnings expected to rise 3.3 percent.
- Consensus sees EPS falling 13% to 35c, down from 40c YoY, on rev. $.547b
- Options on the stock have been three times the normal volume, as options traders priced in a 6.5 percent fluctuation in the share price
- Technical Analysis: The price had reached $27.73, the lowest since the post financial crisis boom. The price closed yesterday at $29.34. For the last year, every time the price reached the $30 level it bounced back up. These are the lowest prices since 2011. However, in the short-term, since March, the price was bound in the $28-$30 range. Yesterday it reached for the first time during the range the 50dma and closed with a bearish shooting star. It reached a high of $29.83 but closed only at $29.34. The resistance of the 50dma, confirmed by a shooting star, at the top of the range, suggests a return to its bottom, at $28.
Upcoming Events
- New York Fed President William Dudley will give a speech in Mumbai, a chance for investors to further assess U.S. monetary policy.
- The Bank of England on Thursday publishes its interest-rate decision and quarterly Inflation Report.
Market Moves
Stocks
- The MSCI Asia Pacific index gained 0.27 percent to 150.24, heading to the highest close since June 2015. Japan’s TOPIX rose 0.1 percent, while the Nikkei climbed 0.3 percent to 19,961.55.
- South Korea’s KOSPI advanced 1.2 percent to a fresh record, erasing Wednesday’s declines following the presidential election. The gauge jumped 2.3 percent on Monday.
- The Shanghai Composite rose 0.3 percent, reversing earlier declines. The gauge fell for six of the past seven days as investors assessed regulatory intervention in the country’s financial markets. The Hang Seng added 0.5 percent.
- The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.1 percent, after gaining 0.2 percent Wednesday to the highest level since August 2015.
- Futures on the S&P 500 slipped 0.1 percent after it climbed 0.1 percent Wednesday, closing at an all-time high.
Currencies
- The yen rose 0.1 percent to 114.16 per dollar, after declining for nine of the past 10 sessions. The Sourth Korean won jumped 0.7 percent. The euro added 0.1 percent to $1.0876. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was flat.
- The kiwi fell 1.2 percent to 68.57 U.S. cents. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept its benchmark rate unchanged and said it will keep rates there for an extended period in expectation that inflation will slow. Many observers had expected the central bank to move to a tightening bias after inflation picked up much more quickly than forecast.
- The Canadian dollar dropped 0.4 percent after Moody’s Investors Service downgraded shares of six Canadian banks.
Bonds
- The yield on US 10-year Treasury notes fell two basis points to 2.40 percent, after rising for the past three sessions.
- New Zealand benchmark yields slipped five basis points to 3.02 percent, while those on 10-year Australian notes were little changed at 2.65 percent.