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Opening Bell: Spiking Yields Pressure Futures, Global Stocks; Dollar Keeps Rising

By Investing.com (Pinchas Cohen/Investing.com)Market OverviewApr 18, 2022 07:12AM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/opening-bell-spiking-yields-pressure-futures-global-stocks-dollar-keeps-rising-200622350
Opening Bell: Spiking Yields Pressure Futures, Global Stocks; Dollar Keeps Rising
By Investing.com (Pinchas Cohen/Investing.com)   |  Apr 18, 2022 07:12AM ET
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  • Treasury yields surpass 3-year highs
  • 10:2 yield curve flattens
  • China warns of economic challenges, offsetting faster growth

Key Events

A selloff in Treasuries on Monday, dragged U.S. futures lower. All four contracts—for the S&P 500, Dow Jones, NASDAQ and Russell 2000—were in the red to start the trading week. Markets in Europe, as well as those in Australia and Hong Kong are closed for Easter Monday.

Oil slipped on fears of slowing demand out of China.

Global Financial Affairs

Though all US futures are currently trading lower, contracts on the NASDAQ 100 and the Russell 2000 are underperforming. That's because big tech companies and small-cap domestic firms are the most sensitive to higher interest rates. Conversely, non-tech mega-cap multinational businesses listed on the Dow provide the best protection from spiking inflation.

Today's Treasury selloff comes ahead of an array of speeches this week by Federal Reserve officials, who may provide investors with fresh clues regarding the central bank's path to higher interest rates. The same sentiment was apparent today from Asian traders.

Asian equities opened lower on Monday as traders closed positions when Chinese officials offset higher than expected economic growth by warning of "significant challenges ahead" despite the stronger-than-anticipated GDP.

Also weighing on investor sentiment in Asia, is the first COVID fatality from the current outbreak in China's largest city and financial hub, Shanghai, even as the case count remains elevated.

Though the world's second-largest economy posted 4.8% Q1 growth despite harsh pandemic lockdowns, China's National Bureau of Statistics poured cold water over the heating economy, warning:

"We must be aware that with the domestic and international environment becoming increasingly complicated and uncertain, economic development is facing significant difficulties and challenges."

The Shanghai Composite declined by 0.5%, but Japan's Nikkei 225 was the regional underperformer, finishing -1.1%. Technology stocks slumped on the prospect of higher rates, an outlook that grew worse as Treasury yields rose.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield neared 2.9% today, for the first time in more than three years—approaching our secondary target of a few weeks ago—as investors continue to price in higher interest rates, a likely response to higher inflation.

While the accelerating yield on the 10-year may ease concerns of a yield curve inversion between the benchmark note and the 2-year Treasury, seen by many as a leading indicator of an upcoming recession, the yield spread be is still flattening.

US 10Y:2Y Yield Spread Weekly
US 10Y:2Y Yield Spread Weekly

Demand for shorter dated bonds rises more quickly as investors anticipate upcoming higher rates, rendering current Treasury yields unattractive. Higher rates also pressure equities as money becomes scarce, and higher, fixed yields provide an attractive alternative to the uncertainty of equities.

The dollar rose after closing flat on Friday in thin trading. It climbed for a third week to its highest level since Mar. 25, 2020, when the greenback gained because of its haven status as markets crashed during the first COVID wave. Another 2% rise would test the Mar. 19, 2020 high, the USD's highest level since December 2016. Beyond that, an additional 0.9% would bring the global reserve currency to heights not seen since the end of 2002 after the dollar peaked as a safe haven following the dot-com crash.

Dollar Monthly Chart
Dollar Monthly Chart

The Dollar Index may be completing a massive H&S Continuation pattern, supported by the even larger H&S bottom between 2003 and 2014. If the pattern completes and follows through, we expect the dollar to head back to the 120 area, a position not seen for the USD since the turn of the century, when the dollar peaked after the euro was launched.

Gold rose, extending a three-week streak, for the first time since February, intra-week.

Gold Weekly
Gold Weekly

In terms of weekly pricing, the yellow metal reached the highest level since late August 2020, after peaking from that all-time high, the first one since 2011.

Bitcoin fell for a second day, tracking risk assets, not safe havens.

BTC/USD Daily
BTC/USD Daily

The most popular cryptocurrency by market cap completed a bearish pennant, setting it to retest the channel bottom on its way down to test the $30K before it potentially falls even lower.

Oil retreated as investors cashed out after a three-day winning streak for the first time since Mar. 21, but natural gas kept gains after opening higher on the threat of an E.U. embargo on Russian energy.

Up Ahead

Market Moves

Stocks

Currencies

Bonds

  • The yield on Germany's 10-year bond dropped 0.06%

Commodities

Opening Bell: Spiking Yields Pressure Futures, Global Stocks; Dollar Keeps Rising
 

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Opening Bell: Spiking Yields Pressure Futures, Global Stocks; Dollar Keeps Rising

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Comments (4)
بهنام بهنامی
بهنام بهنامی Apr 23, 2022 3:26PM ET
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Mohd Izhar Muslim
Mohd Izhar Muslim Apr 18, 2022 2:53PM ET
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Thank you 💯
Pinchas Cohen
Pinchas Cohen Apr 18, 2022 2:53PM ET
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You're welcome, Mohd
Emelly Worschekleno
Emelly Worschekleno Apr 18, 2022 2:03PM ET
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Hi, thanks for the detailed analysis. I would like to recommend online real money pokies https://www.wildtornado.casino/en-AU/games/table_games/ for beginners these are the most useful slots for online earning. It's not as popular, but it also helps to make money online.
Andrew JW
DubaiAgain4 Apr 18, 2022 7:42AM ET
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the euro wasn't launched in 2001 it was launched in 1999... surely if you're 2 years out of sink with that then everything written has to be brought into question.. if the facts are riddled with errors, surely the opinions must be disregarded...
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Adarsh Shettigar
Adarsh Shettigar Apr 18, 2022 7:42AM ET
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*sync. Surely the entire comment must be disregarded.
Pinchas Cohen
Pinchas Cohen Apr 18, 2022 7:42AM ET
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when the dollar *peaked* after the euro was launched.
Pinchas Cohen
Pinchas Cohen Apr 18, 2022 7:42AM ET
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Sam Iam  Just because someone makes a spelling error about a language that isn't his native doesn't mean the message has no merit.
Pinchas Cohen
Pinchas Cohen Apr 18, 2022 7:42AM ET
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Adarsh Shettigar  Sam Iam Just because someone makes a spelling error about a language that isn't his native doesn't mean the message has no merit.
Andrew JW
DubaiAgain4 Apr 18, 2022 7:42AM ET
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I was pointing out that it eluded to both time frames communicated in your literature that the same time line was apparent when in fact it was 2 years apart. A lawyer would recommend the judge throw it out as it was vague therefore in doubt.. that was all…
 
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