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Opening Bell: Global Stock Rally Fades; Technicals Weigh On Yields

By Investing.com (Pinchas Cohen/Investing.com)Market OverviewJan 10, 2019 05:30AM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/opening-bell-200374298
Opening Bell: Global Stock Rally Fades; Technicals Weigh On Yields
By Investing.com (Pinchas Cohen/Investing.com)   |  Jan 10, 2019 05:30AM ET
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  • Global rally loses steam, futures point to lower US open
  • Yields, dollar, oil appear to be affected by technicals, in line with equity setback
  • Optimism slightly dented by second-longest US government shutdown in history

Key Events

The post-Christmas global stock rally showed signs of losing steam this morning, as European shares and futures contracts on the S&P 500, Dow and NASDAQ 100 tracked Asian equities lower.

Today's setback occurred despite the three tailwinds that had helped the previous upward push remain intact: a dovish shift in the Fed's interest rate trajectory, a de-escalation of the US-China tariff dispute and last Friday's upbeat US employment report. Historically, government shutdowns like the one currently taking place in the US don’t justify an equity decline. That leaves us with the simple explanation that the current rally is nothing more than a correction within a downtrend, as we've previously argued and as the S&P 500 chart (pictured lower) exemplifies.

STOXX 600 Daily Chart
STOXX 600 Daily Chart

The STOXX 600 wiped out Wednesday’s gains, dragged down by carmakers, which just yesterday had outperformed on positive US-China trade talks sentiment. Technically, prices are falling after yesterday’s trading developed a shooting star, a candle whose bearish implication is reinforced by a cross-road of technical triggers: the October-November support turned resistance, the 50 DMA and the top of a falling channel.

In the earlier Asia open, most regional benchmarks weakened despite a softer dollar and optimism surrounding diplomatic talks between the world’s two largest economies. Japan’s Nikkei (-1.29%) underperformed, dragged down by the Retail, Chemical and Electrical/Machinery sectors. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was the best performer, rising 0.29 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (+0.24%) advanced again while the mainland’s Shanghai Composite (-0.36%) slipped lower.

USD/CNY Daily Chart
USD/CNY Daily Chart

Perhaps a strengthening yuan was weighing on stocks, after the currency reached the strongest level since August, as the short-term USD/CNY pattern shifted downward. Obviously, this is helpful for trade negotiations, as US President Donald Trump complained repeatedly about a weak Chinese currency.

Global Financial Affairs

In yesterday’s US session, equities extended the rebound from the end-of-year bottom as Fed minutes revealed a more dovish tilt than expected. However, optimism was partially offset by the second-longest government shutdown in history, which entered its 19th day on Wednesday. If Trump and US lawmakers fail to reach an agreement on Saturday, we will witness the longest government shutdown in history.

Adding to ongoing political tension, the US president stormed out of a meeting with Congressional leaders yesterday when House Speaker Nancy Pelosi reiterated she would not fund a border wall.

S&P 500 Daily Chart
S&P 500 Daily Chart

The S&P 500 closed 0.41 percent higher, with Energy (+1.58%) the obvious leader as it tracked oil prices higher after WTI returned to a bullish market. Technology, the usual leading sector, advanced 1.29 percent. Defensive sectors Consumer Staples (+-0.93%) and Utilities (-0.6%) lagged, as well as interest rate sensitive Real Estate (-0.41%). It may appear counter-intuitive that the sector which holds a negative correlation with interest rates should fall after surprisingly dovish minutes were published. The answer may lie in the famous Wall Street adage “buy the rumor, sell the news.” Investors appear to think the reduced interest rate outlook is already priced in.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average inched 0.39 percent higher.

The NASDAQ Composite gained 0.87 percent. The Russell 2000 also climbed 0.87 percent, outperforming, once again, despite market structure suggesting it should underperform, as hopes for a US-Sino resolution should make small-cap stocks unattractive compared to their large-cap counterparts, who stand to gain the most from easing tariffs.

Is this negative divergence a signal investors lack faith in the US-China negotiation process, or perhaps an outright dismissal of the trade dispute as a key headwind in the current market climate?

UST 10-Year Daily Chart
UST 10-Year Daily Chart

The yield on 10-year Treasurys fell for a second day after it reached the downtrend line since early November, when yields hit the highest level since May 2011. Recently, the 50 DMA crossed below the 200 DMA, triggering a Death Cross.

DXY Daily Chart
DXY Daily Chart

The dollar sold off, slipping 0.78 lower, after Fed minutes confirmed the central bank's resolve to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes. Technically, the greenback finally topped out completely, as it has been signaling for weeks.

It is noteworthy that the minutes projected a different picture than what emerged from Chair Jerome Powell’s speech. Central bankers seemed to acknowledge a lack of clarity after the last vote for a rate hike, and seemed less eager to press on with further increases until inflation ticks higher. The message was in stark contrast with Powell’s “automatic pilot” comment regarding normalizing the Fed's balance sheet. The minutes makes sense in the post-market turmoil reality. They seem almost fine-tuned to new market expectations.

WTI Daily Chart
WTI Daily Chart

Oil gave up 2 percent this morning on rising US supply, though it later re-gained some ground. The early drop marked the first correction after eight straight days of gain—the longest rally in one and a half years, with supply cuts and the broader market's risk-on shift prompting a 5.18 percent surge. Technically, supply overcame demand at the 50 DMA and the downtrend line since December 4, after crossing above the downtrend line since October 3, when it reached the highest levels since mid-November 2014. However, it blew out a rising flag (red), bearish in a downtrend, suggesting further rallies.

Up Ahead

  • Fed Chairman Powell will speak to the Economic Club of Washington D.C. on Thursday.
  • Britain’s Parliament this week resumes a debate on the Brexit withdrawal bill, with Prime Minister Theresa May seeking to avoid defeat in a vote set for the week of January 14.

Market Moves

Stocks

  • Futures on the S&P 500 declined 0.8 percent , the first retreat in a week.
  • The Stoxx 600 gave up 0.8 percent, the biggest fall in a week.
  • The UK’s FTSE 100 lost 0.6 percent, the largest fall in a week.
  • Germany’s DAX fell 0.9 percent, the biggest fall in a week.
  • The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.1 percent, the first retreat in more than a week.
  • The MSCI Emerging Market Index climbed 0.2 percent to the highest in five weeks.

Currencies

  • The Dollar Index increased 0.2% percent to the lowest in 2 months.
  • The euro climbed 0.1 percent to $1.155, the strongest in more than 12 weeks.
  • The British pound dipped 0.2 percent to $1.2768.
  • The Japanese yen gained 0.3 percent to 107.88 per dollar, the strongest in a week.

Bonds

  • The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell three basis points to 2.68 percent, the largest fall in a week.
  • Germany’s 10-year yield slipped two basis points to 0.26 percent, the first retreat in a week and the biggest tumble in more than a week.
  • Britain’s 10-year yield slid four basis points to 1.226 percent, the lowest in a week on the largest tumble in more than a week.
  • The spread of Italy’s 10-year bonds over Germany’s rose five basis points to 2.6482 percentage points.

Commodities

  • Gold rose 0.2 percent to $1,296.39 an ounce, the highest in seven months.
Opening Bell: Global Stock Rally Fades; Technicals Weigh On Yields
 

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Opening Bell: Global Stock Rally Fades; Technicals Weigh On Yields

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Chris Sundo
Chris Sundo Jan 15, 2019 3:05PM ET
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We have a tendency to lean towards bearishness right after a deep sell-off, perhaps also because the elevator goes down faster than the escalator up. The SPX 1650/1680 value you mentioned in one of your recent papers is just now coming up via the 50DMA and that might throw stocks into the 20DMA. Definitely, a megaphone pattern which is bearish, to begin with. I think the general population has forgotten the death cross. Perma bulls talk about an upside breakout, the way gold's RHS is lower than its LHS. Interesting times ahead.
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Jay Am
Jay Am Jan 10, 2019 8:15AM ET
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gold will fly to 1400 yay
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Gregg Sawdy
Gregg Sawdy Jan 10, 2019 7:51AM ET
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It's called a bear market.
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