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One Rate Hike Or Two?

Published 08/07/2015, 01:19 PM

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond

Lately, everyone has been wondering when interest rates will move higher. The talking heads in the media seem convinced that rates are moving much higher. They aren’t talking about one hike; they're talking about two. Maybe the Fed will, who knows.

The chart above looks at (ARCA:TLT), which hit support a little over a month ago on low momentum and bullish investors as bonds hit levels seen just a few times in the past 10 years.

At this point, TLT is attempting to breakout above falling resistance, as momentum is the third lowest in the past 5 years with just 38% of investors bullish bonds. Around a year ago, investors bullish bonds were near 70% and they were on the wrong side of the trade.

Full Disclosure….Premium and Sector Members are long TLT with stop just below resistance levels.

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