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Oil Lowest Since February Promoting Peak Inflation

By Stephen InnesMarket OverviewAug 05, 2022 04:21AM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/oil-lowest-since-february-promoting-peak-inflation-200628106
Oil Lowest Since February Promoting Peak Inflation
By Stephen Innes   |  Aug 05, 2022 04:21AM ET
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US equities slipped on Thursday as mixed earnings outlooks and more hawkish Fed official commentary offered little encouragement to investors ahead of today's US nonfarm payrolls. A return in US-China tensions also weighed on sentiment following headlines that 22 Chinese Air Force planes entered Taiwan's air defence zone and crossed the Taiwan Strait median line.

Oil prices continued their slide and should promote the peak inflation narrative, which seems sufficient enough to keep the markets supported for now.

Still, market exhaustion and nonfarm payroll anticipation were common themes among markets during the reasonably quiet New York session on Thursday. 

Oil

The most meaningful read-through from this week is the oil markets' newfangled predisposition to treat the bearish news as overly bearish and discount good news.

The deteriorating demand picture in the US seemingly justified the downswing despite OPEC's reluctance to deploy strategic spare capacity.

Foreign Exchange

Risk traded firm into the New York afternoon yesterday, assisting EM FX outperformance.

In G10, GBP/USD tumbled despite the Bank of England's most significant rate hike of 50bp since 1995 and the reasonably hawkish short-term guidance but retraced most of the move throughout the rest of the New York session.

Oil Lowest Since February Promoting Peak Inflation
 

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Oil Lowest Since February Promoting Peak Inflation

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Kris Jay
Kris Jay Aug 05, 2022 5:41AM ET
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remember that the administration has removed energy and food from the CPI so small changes in oil ($20/bbl) will not have immediate effect on core CPI.    Lower energy prices will help but we have gone from $50 to now $90/bbl.    the downside for equities is that lower oil demand means contracting economy which means less earnings in Q3.
 
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