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Oil, Lead Us Lower……..

By Tim KnightCommoditiesNov 24, 2022 04:01AM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/oil-lead-us-lower-200632734
Oil, Lead Us Lower……..
By Tim Knight   |  Nov 24, 2022 04:01AM ET
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Happy Thanksgiving Day, everyone. The market is closed today and closes early on Friday. The one chart giving me a big smile is crude oil, which is taking a nice, hard tumble:

Crude Oil Chart
Crude Oil Chart

Seen in a larger context, oil is approaching the all-too-brief lows we experienced earlier this week when the OPEC+ rumor was trotted out, and then denied, resulting in a crazy V-bottom. The recovery didn’t last, though, and my energy put options are going to be happy for the resumption of weakness.

Crude Oil Hourly Chart
Crude Oil Hourly Chart

The best representation I have of the ES recently is shown below, with key support at 3994. This chart does not reflect it, but in the few minutes since I took this screen shot, all the equity futures turned red, so we’ve got a decent shot of a failed bullish breakout here.

ES 15-Min Chart
ES 15-Min Chart

I sure hope so, because what we must do is ruined the prospect of repeating what it did this summer when the failed bullish breakout turned into a resurrected bullish breakout.

NQ 4-Hr Chart
NQ 4-Hr Chart

I have a pretty big amount of cash waiting to augment my existing 25 positions. In general, the past 41 days have been rotten for the beleaguered equity bears (in spite of still being in, nominally, a bear market) so obviously I’m hoping to return to the good times Real Soon Now.

Oil, Lead Us Lower……..
 

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Oil, Lead Us Lower……..

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Comments (4)
Tony Hall
Tony Hall Nov 25, 2022 1:06AM ET
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Its obvious that governments are trying to manipulate price. They decided to play russian roulette with russia by thinking they can cap oil prices coming out of russia. The only thing your short position has going for it, is a recession. But wait, the administraion sys we arent in a recession. I guess that means your in a quandry. If this russion price cap backfires, oil prices will leave you with a bunch of losses.
s k goel
s k goel Nov 24, 2022 7:48PM ET
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do y th8nk opec will allow such fall in crude
crude andy
crude andy Nov 24, 2022 11:59AM ET
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oil sells off every thanksgiving, are you that much of a noob? Dont worry the fundamentals are strong and it WILL go back up and vaporize your put options.
Ok Crude
Ok Crude Nov 24, 2022 9:00AM ET
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Not if your a small oil produ er its not ******!!!
 
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