Signs of permanent damage in oil?
Oil prices are a little lower today after gradually recovering in recent days. While no one can say with confidence that a banking crisis has been averted, there is growing confidence that the actions taken by central banks, regulators, and governments have significantly reduced the odds of one, particularly a severe scenario, and that is ultimately good for the economy and crude demand.
So while we saw Brent and WTI plunge to late-2021 levels amid the panic of the various collapses, they have bounced back almost 10% in recent days. That said, they remain below the range lows that preceded the sell-off and have even run into resistance around those lows over the last couple of days. A move back above here may suggest confidence is returning while a failure to do so may indicate some more permanent damage to expectations.
Gold shining once more?
Gold has been buoyed by the less hawkish stance from the Fed and the market perception that the central bank will swiftly reverse course on interest rates. While Powell pushed back against this, markets have other ideas and that’s enabled the dollar to soften, yields to pull back, and gold to rally.
Throw in some risk-aversion on the back of Yellen’s comments on the government not considering blanket insurance for bank deposits and gold is beginning to shine once more. It now has $2,000 in its sights once more – a level it has rarely ever traded above – and record highs are not that far above either. This could potentially become a very favorable environment for the yellow metal.