NZ CPI is a quarterly release and there is plenty of room for a surprise as traders might not get this figure right on the first release. As this is the first significant release out of New Zealand this month, I expect to see plenty of reactions if there is a surprise.
4:45pm (NY Time) NZ CPI q/q Forecast 0.4% Previous 0.5%
DEVIATION: 0.3% (BUY NZD 0.7% / SELL NZD 0.1%)
The Basic Plan
Our focus will be on the headline CPI number. If we get a better release of 0.7%, we should be looking to BUY NZD; if we get a lower release 0.1%, then we’ll see NZD move down. Usually if our BUY or SELL figures are hit, we could expect the market to move about 40~50 pips within the next 30~90 minutes.
I’d recommend using the Recommended Pairs from above as they are based on my CSM, which should provide the best combination of currency pairs to trade based on better/worse news… of course, you can also trade the default pair: NZD/USD.
Outlook Score Outlook score is derived from market sentiment, focus, and economic indicators for the currency. It represents the long-term trend of the currency and its market perception. In short, a strong Outlook Score means more long-term demand for the currency, and a weak Outlook Score is an opposite.
DEFINITION: “The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the rate of inflation (i.e., the rate of price changes) experienced by consumers when purchasing goods and services. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability; when inflation rises above an annualized rate of approximately 2%, they will respond by raising interest rates to bring prices down. Higher interest rates attract foreign investment, thus increasing demand for the nation’s currency. CPI is one of the most closely watched indicators and will usually have a high impact upon release.”