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Netflix Q1 Earnings Preview: What Are the Stock's Fundamentals Telling Us?

Published 04/18/2023, 07:23 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM
  • Netflix stock is back in focus ahead of earnings after enduring a tumultuous 2022
  • The company has demonstrated consistent growth in both turnover and profits over time
  • Earnings per diluted share growth has been impressive over the past 10 years, but such growth rates are not sustainable, casting doubts about future growth
  • Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) appears to have regained the investors' attention after enduring a turbulent period in 2022 due to intense competition from other streaming services like HBO, Disney+, and Amazon Prime.

    Despite experiencing a decline, the stock has made a comeback. Let's take a look at the company's fundamentals ahead of its quarterly report, which is due to be released after the markets close today.

    What Does the Company Do?

    Netflix is a provider of entertainment services. The company has paid streaming subscriptions in over 190 countries. It allows members to watch various TV series, documentaries, and feature films in a wide range of genres and languages.

    Members can watch as much as they want, anytime, anywhere, on any screen connected to the internet. Members can play, pause and resume viewing with no commercials. The company also offers its Digital Versatile Disc (DVD) service by mail in the US.

    The company offers a variety of streaming subscription plans, with prices varying by country and plan features. Prices for its plans range from approximately $2 to $27 per month.

    Members can watch content on any Internet-connected device, including smart TVs, game consoles, TV set-top boxes, and mobile devices. The company acquires, licenses, and produces content, including original programming.

    Data at a Glance

    First of all, let's take a look at the balance sheet:

    The company has consistently grown its turnover and profits over time, except last year, which proved challenging for all tech companies. It remains to be seen how the company will perform in the coming year.

    On average, the margins have remained steady at around 30% over the years, suggesting that the company has successfully boosted its turnover without negatively impacting its margins.

    This is down to the company's competitive advantage in the industry.

    Netflix Revenue Trend

    Source: Investing Pro

    Netflix Net Income Trend

    Source: Investing Pro

    Netflix Gross Profit Margins Trend

    Source: Investing Pro

    Over the past 10 years, the annual growth rate of EPSd (earnings per diluted share) has been an impressive 50%. However, it is essential to note that such growth rates are typically not sustainable in the long term. And this casts some doubt about the company's future growth.

    Netflix Diluted EPS Trend

    Source: Investing Pro

    Balance Sheet and Cash Flow

    Between cash and short-term investments, Netflix has over $6 billion, with total current assets of around $9 billion. This is a good short-term balance compared to current liabilities (around $8 billion).

    The debt-to-equity ratio is under control (0.82), again providing a good balance on the equity side.

    Regarding cash flow, both the operating cash flow and the free cash flow have displayed fluctuating trends. While there has been an improvement in recent years, the company's growth in this area is not yet robust.

    Perhaps one of the possible turns that shareholders would like to see (also given unsustainable growth rates for a long time) is a greater focus on improving cash flow and long-term sustainability.

    Netflix Cashflow Trend

    Source: Investing Pro

    With an FCF of 1.6 billion (the latest available), the FCF yield is around 1%, which is very low but unsurprising as Netflix has some cash flow issues. On average, a good level of profitability is between 8-10%, so the company has a lot of room to improve on this metric.

    Valuations

    The stock is currently trading at a discount to the fair value of around $451 per share (based on the average of 12 different models).

    Analysts are currently cautious, with the average target price for the stock set at $357. This price is close to the current value, with very little room for growth.

    Netflix Fair Value

    Source: Investing Pro

    In general, however, as the outlook for further growth dims, the focus should shift to profitability, not least because the current momentum is one of the relative weaknesses across the tech sector.

    As we await the next quarterly report, it remains to be seen whether the new initiatives (the end of shared accounts and the inclusion of advertising) will lead the stock higher.

    Get All the Information on Investing Pro

    The analysis was carried out using Investing Pro, access the tool by clicking on the image.

    Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only; it does not constitute a solicitation, offer, advice, consultation, or recommendation to invest and, as such, is not intended to induce the purchase of any assets. I would like to remind you that any investment is evaluated from multiple perspectives and is highly risky; therefore, any investment decision and the associated risk remain with the investor.

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Latest comments

GREAT TIMING!  Initial response for  real earnings was down 12 percent.  Now only 2 percent. like the SVB debacle that trillion dollar loss was over even before it started. So no matter how bad NETFLIX is doing there will be buyers like the ones that gobbled up the news on the Pandemic. that only took 5 weeks and real death in USA to confirm things might be bad.  We live in crazy irrational times where you can alter your perspective to make anything look great. Crash for all indices around the corner. Stagflation here we come!
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