Data Remains Largely Neutral
The indexes closed mixed Thursday with mixed internals on the NYSE and NASDAQ as NYSE volumes rose from the prior session while NASDAQ volumes declined. No significant technical events occurred on the charts although two indexes are challenging resistance, leaving the near term trends evenly split. The data remains largely neutral in nature. As such, we are leaving our near term “neutral/positive” outlook for the major equity indexes in place.
- On the charts, the indexes closed mixed yesterday with mixed internals on the NYSE and NBASDAQ. Both exchanges saw positive breadth but negative up/down volume. The SPX (page 2), DJI (page 2), COMPQX (page 3) and NDX (page 3) closed lower on the day as the rest advanced. The DJT (page 4) closed back above its 50 DMA while the MID (page 4) and VALUA (page 5) closed near resistance but have yet to violate to the upside. As such, the near term trends remain evenly split with the SPX, DJI, COMPQX and NDX in uptrends with the rest neutral. The cumulative advance/decline lines for the All Exchange and NYSE turned slightly positive while the of the NASDAQ’s remains neutral.
- The data remains largely neutral. All of the McClellan OB/OS Oscillators are neutral (All Exchange:+21.33/+1.06 NYSE:+39.62/+2.68 NASDAQ:+5.55/-0.82) as are the Equity Put/Call Ratio (0.62) and OpenInsider Buy/Sell Ratio (39.8). The Total P/C (contrary indicator) and OEX P/C are counterbalancing at 0.9 and 2.11 as the crowd is leaning towards puts while pros are once again betting on near term weakness reappearing. Valuation finds consensus forward 12 month earnings estimates for the SPX of $167.59 leaving the forward 12 month p/e for the SPX at 16.7 versus the “rule of 20” implied fair value of a 17.1 multiple and a 6.0% earnings yield.
- In conclusion, given the current state of the charts and data, we see no evidence presented to alter our near term “neutral/positive” outlook for the major equity indexes at this time.
- SPX: 2,790/2,839
- DJI: 24,761/25,377
- NASDAQ: 7,691/NA
- NDX: 7,199/NA
- DJT: 10,436/10,771
- MID: 1,968/2,008
- Russell: 1,654/1,712
- VALUA: 6,365/6,487
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