Breaking News
0
Ad-Free Version. Upgrade your Investing.com experience. Save up to 40% More details

Natural Gas: The New Injection Season Begins

By Dimitris KontoulisCommoditiesApr 03, 2021 11:25AM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/natural-gas-the-new-injection-season-begins-200571053
Natural Gas: The New Injection Season Begins
By Dimitris Kontoulis   |  Apr 03, 2021 11:25AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This article has already been saved in your Saved Items
 

Natural Gas futures on the NYMEX had a volatile week before closing at the same level as the previous one at $2.62 on Friday. EIA reported on Thursday the first injection of the new refill season of 14 Bcf in working underground stocks for the week ended March 26. Total inventory is currently at 1,764 Bcf, 11.3% lower y/y, 2% below the 5-year average, 53% above the 5-year minimum.

The Daily MACD has crossed bullish on a bounce recently as we had anticipated. We now want to see the $2.70 level offering resistance so we can continue trading the post-winter downtrend towards the season's floor. Around $2.25 for the next evident support. We will feel better about this move when the Daily MACD crosses into red again. It might take another couple of weeks.

The Natural Gas market cannot find new buying volumes. The recent $3.40 seasonal ceiling has been offering a nice benchmark all these past months in terms of market participants behavior. The downtrend was quick and aggressive from these highs, spot price touched $2.25 twice in the middle of winter as the 2016 lows are still shaping the overall sentiment. At $3.00 the market offered us another selling opportunity following the blizzards, while January 2022 contract remained flat around $3.00 throughout the winter.

We are still open to selling operations on near term charts but we remain vigilant in identifying a seasonal floor. It might be only a couple of months away.

Demand for U.S. Natural Gas is currently 3.6% lower than a year ago. It is looking way better than it had looked in the beginning of the withdrawal season. Technically Recoverable Resources are at record high. Exports are growing steadily, LNG deliveries at new record, but, the U.S. domestic consumption remains 8.3% lower y/y. Only the industrial sector is looking good. Natural Gas is struggling to maintain its residential, commercial and power generation market shares. The U.S. recovery is looking steady. Unemployment falls to 6%. The housing market is looking good as well. All U.S. macro data and the Dollar Index to be to routinely monitored. Daily, 4hour, 15min MACD and RSI are pointing to entry areas.

Nat Gas 4-H Chart
Nat Gas 4-H Chart

Natural Gas: The New Injection Season Begins
 

Related Articles

Natural Gas: The New Injection Season Begins

Add a Comment

Comment Guidelines

We encourage you to use comments to engage with users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind: 

  • Enrich the conversation
  • Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed.
  • Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically.
  •  Use standard writing style. Include punctuation and upper and lower cases.
  • NOTE: Spam and/or promotional messages and links within a comment will be removed
  • Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user.
  • Don’t Monopolize the Conversation. We appreciate passion and conviction, but we also believe strongly in giving everyone a chance to air their thoughts. Therefore, in addition to civil interaction, we expect commenters to offer their opinions succinctly and thoughtfully, but not so repeatedly that others are annoyed or offended. If we receive complaints about individuals who take over a thread or forum, we reserve the right to ban them from the site, without recourse.
  • Only English comments will be allowed.

Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at Investing.com’s discretion.

Write your thoughts here
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
Post also to:
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Thanks for your comment. Please note that all comments are pending until approved by our moderators. It may therefore take some time before it appears on our website.
Comments (2)
makhdoom ali
makhdoom ali Apr 04, 2021 1:08AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
very comprehensive and commendable article.
Abbas Khan
Abbas Khan Apr 04, 2021 1:08AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
what mean it I not understand ali brother can u tell me in easy words price may ho up expectations
Abbas Khan
Abbas Khan Apr 04, 2021 1:05AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
what sir expectations open it on 3$ is it possible
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Add Chart to Comment
Confirm Block

Are you sure you want to block %USER_NAME%?

By doing so, you and %USER_NAME% will not be able to see any of each other's Investing.com's posts.

%USER_NAME% was successfully added to your Block List

Since you’ve just unblocked this person, you must wait 48 hours before renewing the block.

Report this comment

I feel that this comment is:

Comment flagged

Thank You!

Your report has been sent to our moderators for review
Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.
Continue with Google
or
Sign up with Email