Despite continuously increasing weekly withdrawals and regular conflicting climate announcements, one finds it difficult to define the direction of next move of natural gas futures price. El Nino effect on weather may be the major cause for these sudden shifts in weather forecasts, but this also reflects that a cold weather forecast may be there in near future very soon and prevalence of cold weather may be prolonged due to its delayed arrival.
A sudden shift in the short term weather forecast doesn't mean that a forecast just a few days back was not going to prove permanently wrong in a cold weather season.
On analysis the movement of natural gas futures price in weekly chart, I find that the uptrend which started from February 22nd, 2016 is still intact on an uptrend line, despite some sudden short term down moves and the pullbacks were also equally strong.
At the current level of $3.211, I find the downside is limited and the level between $3.110 and $3.212 seems to be a good supporting zone.
I find that a long consolidation phase of natural gas futures price seems to be over and it will soon resume its uptrend. Any closing above $3.357 will push it in the crossover zone.
After staying in the crossover zone for a few trading sessions, particularly its presence above uptrend line marked in the weekly chart, it may successfully enter into the breakout zone. Any closing above $3.575 will make it possible entry into the breakout zone.
A closing above $3.757 will make the possible presence of buyers and bouts of short covering for its journey on an uptrend line really successful. But carrying a position for the next day is not advisable because of the looming uncertainty in the atmosphere.
Have a nice trading time.
Disclaimer: This analysis is purely based on the technical observations. I do not have any position in natural gas. One can create position in natural gas at his/her own risk.